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Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy)

  • Sergey Drobyshevsky

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Maria Kazakova

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Michael Alexeev

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

This work proposes a methodology of decomposition of the Russian GDP growth into structural, foreign trade and cyclical components. This approach is based on the decomposition algorithm for macroeconomic indicators used in developed countries, considering also high dependence of the Russian economy on terms of trade (dynamics of world oil prices). The results are of practical value in terms of assessing the effectiveness of economic policy in Russia at various stages of the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:128
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    2. V. Mau, 2016. "Anti-crisis measures or structural reforms: Russia’s economic policy in 2015," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 2.
    3. Kosarev, Vladimir (Косарев, Владимир) & Pavlov, Pavel (Павлов, Павел) & Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей), 2019. "Social Capital as a Factor of Economic Growth in the Regions of Russia [Социальный Капитал Как Фактор Экономического Роста Российских Регионов]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 124-149, October.
    4. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    5. Buklemishev, O., 2016. "Overcoming Investment Pause in the Russian Economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 160-167.
    6. Andrey Polbin, 2021. "Multivariate unobserved component model for an oil-exporting economy: the case of Russia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 681-685, May.
    7. Vladimir Mau, 2018. "Russian economic policy: Challenges of growth," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(2), pages 87-107, June.
    8. Zemtsov, S. & Smelov, Y., 2018. "Factors of Regional Development in Russia: Geography, Human Capital and Regional Policies," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 84-108.
    9. Nguyen Ngoc Thach, 2020. "Macroeconomic Growth in Vietnam Transitioned to Market: An Unrestricted VES Framework," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    10. T. V. Blinova & V. A. Rusanovskii & V. A. Markov, 2021. "Estimating the Impact of Economic Fluctuations on Unemployment in Russian Regions Based on the Okun Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 103-110, January.
    11. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2018. "Economic Growth and the Trade of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 92-114.
    12. Mau, Vladimir & Ulyukaev, Alexey, 2015. "Global crisis and challenges for Russian economic development," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 4-29.
    13. Nikita Alexandrovich Burakov & Alexander Yakovlevich Rubinstein, 2020. "Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Measuring the Economic Growth Potential of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 24-50.
    14. E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; GDP; budget; unemployment; econometric methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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