IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v28y2021i8p681-685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate unobserved component model for an oil-exporting economy: the case of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Polbin

Abstract

This paper presents an unobserved component model for real GDP, real household consumption, and real investment of an oil-exporting economy. The model decomposes domestic variables’ dynamics into permanent and transitory components, accounting for dependence on oil prices in the short and long-run, as well as for the common long-run economic growth and the common cyclical behaviour. Estimated on the Russian macroeconomic variables, the model exhibits a strong dependence on oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Polbin, 2021. "Multivariate unobserved component model for an oil-exporting economy: the case of Russia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 681-685, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:28:y:2021:i:8:p:681-685
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1770678
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2020.1770678
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504851.2020.1770678?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    2. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    3. Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "An Empirical Growth Model For Major Oil Exporters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    5. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
    6. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Artur R. Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Output Gap in Russian Economy: Estimate Based on the IMF’s Multivariate Filter [Разрыв Выпуска В Российской Экономике: Оценка На Основе Многомерного Фильтра Мвф]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 4, pages 15-23, April.
    2. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    3. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    4. Fokin, Nikita & Haritonova, Marina, 2020. "Сравнительный Анализ Прогнозных Моделей Российского Ввп В Условиях Наличия Структурных Сдвигов [Comparative analysis of the forecasting models for Russia’s GDP under the structural breaks]," MPRA Paper 103412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Artur R. Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Разрыв Выпуска В Российской Экономике: Оценка На Основе Многомерного Фильтра Мвф," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 4, pages 15-23, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    2. Fokin, Nikita & Polbin, Andrey, 2019. "A Bivariate Forecasting Model For Russian GDP Under Structural Changes In Monetary Policy and Long-Term Growth," MPRA Paper 95306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
    3. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    4. A. Polbin., 2017. "Econometric estimation of the impact of oil prices shock on the Russian economy in VECM model," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    5. Nuutilainen, Riikka & Rautava, Jouko, 2020. "Russia and the slowdown of the Chinese economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Fokin, Nikita & Haritonova, Marina, 2020. "Сравнительный Анализ Прогнозных Моделей Российского Ввп В Условиях Наличия Структурных Сдвигов [Comparative analysis of the forecasting models for Russia’s GDP under the structural breaks]," MPRA Paper 103412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 514-535, June.
    8. Polbin, Andrey & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Спектральная Оценка Компоненты Бизнес Цикла Ввп России С Учетом Высокой Зависимости От Условий Торговли [Spectral estimation of the business cycle component of the Russian GDP under high dependence," MPRA Paper 78667, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    10. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    12. Andrey Polbin & Mikhail Andreyev & Andrey Zubarev, 2018. "How Commodity Prices Influence the Members of the Eurasian Economic Union," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 623-637.
    13. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    14. Idrisov, Georgy & Kazakova, Maria & Polbin, Andrey, 2015. "A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 257-272.
    15. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    16. Tuzova, Yelena & Qayum, Faryal, 2016. "Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
    17. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Abate, Megersa, 2014. "Does fuel price affect trucking industry’s network characteristics?: evidence from Denmark," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:26, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    19. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Mignon, Valérie & Sallenave, Audrey, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    20. Bozhechkova, Alexandera V. (Божечкова, Александра В.) & Polbin, Andrey V. (Полбин, Андрей В.), 2018. "Evidence for the Interest Rate Channel in the IS Curve for the Russian Economy [Тестирование Наличия Процентного Канала В Кривой Is Для Российской Экономики]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 70-91, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:28:y:2021:i:8:p:681-685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.