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Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Cianci

    (Department of Economics - Gabriele d'Annunzio University)

Abstract

Lo studio muove dalla definizione di pareggio di bilancio pubblico in termini strutturali, previsto dal Fiscal Compact nell’ambito delle recenti regole fiscali europee. Tali regole subordinano l’obiettivo di bilancio di ogni Stato membro alla determinazione della componente ciclica del saldo di bilancio su cui gioca un ruolo di primaria importanza l’output gap (scostamento tra prodotto effettivo e potenziale) e, di conseguenza, le varie componenti e ipotesi che vanno a determinare il prodotto potenziale, in particolare il fattore lavoro. Lo studio analizza, quindi, il ruolo del tasso di disoccupazione che non genera spinte inflazionistiche (NAIRU, non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) nel contesto delle valutazioni di bilancio nel caso italiano, proponendone una stima derivante dai parametri di un modello macroeconometrico e confrontandola coi valori della Commissione Europea. Si verifica che i dati forniti dalla Commissione sovrastimano il NAIRU e, quindi, sottostimano il prodotto potenziale, lasciando minor “spazio fiscale” ad eventuali politiche anticicliche oppure obbligando il paese ad eccessive correzioni procicliche di bilancio.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  • Handle: RePEc:ais:wpaper:1601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    NAIRU; output gap; potential output; unemployment; European policy rules; cyclically adjusted budget.;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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