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Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates

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  • Breuer, Sebastian
  • Elstner, Steffen

Abstract

Dieses Papier stellt das Verfahren des Sachverständigenrates zur Bestimmung des Produktionspotenzials für die deutsche Wirtschaft vor. Im Vergleich zur Methode der EU-Kommission berücksichtigt der Ansatz des Sachverständigenrates in einem stärkeren Ausmaß demografische Faktoren. Darüber hinaus unterscheiden sich beide Verfahren hinsichtlich der Schätzung der strukturellen Erwerbslosenquote und der Totalen Faktorproduktivität. In dem Papier werden zudem die Grenzen und Möglichkeiten der Potenzialschätzung diskutiert. So lässt sich die Zuwachsrate des Produktionspotenzials deutlich verlässlicher schätzen als deren Niveau. Die Schätzung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Outputlücke ist daher mit einer erheblichen Unsicherheit behaftet.

Suggested Citation

  • Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates," Working Papers 07/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:072017
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