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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Hohe Kapazitätsauslastung birgt Stabilitätsrisiken

Author

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  • Barabas, György
  • Gebhardt, Heinz
  • Schmidt, Torsten
  • Weyerstraß, Klaus

Abstract

In der mittleren Frist dürfte sich der Aufschwung in Deutschland zwar fortsetzen, doch wird die Wirtschaftsleistung voraussichtlich weniger schwungvoll expandieren als derzeit. Dabei wird vor allem die Binnennachfrage zunächst kräftig ausgeweitet. Ein allmähliches Anziehen der geldpolitischen Zügel dürfte die Nachfrage etwas dämpfen. Auch die derzeit recht hohen Zuwächse des Produktionspotenzials werden sich in den kommenden Jahren aus demografischen Gründen wohl verringern. Gegen Ende des Projektionszeitraums dürften sowohl das Produktionspotenzial als auch die tatsächliche Produktion mit Raten von 1,4% gegenüber dem Vorjahr ausgeweitet werden. Die positive Lücke zwischen der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Nachfrage und dem Produktionspotenzial dürfte in den kommenden Jahren zunächst noch steigen und sich gegen Ende der mittleren Frist bei etwa 1,5% des Produktionspotenzials einpendeln. Mit derart hoch ausgelasteten Kapazitäten befindet sich die deutsche Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur.

Suggested Citation

  • Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2017. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Hohe Kapazitätsauslastung birgt Stabilitätsrisiken," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(4), pages 39-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:177918
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