The economic impact of pandemics and wars in pre-modern Western Europe: A supply-side perspective

This paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the supply-side economic repercussions of pandemics and conflicts in pre-modern Western Europe (UK, France, Spain). We integrate theoretical simulations of a Malthusian growth model with empirical analyses of historical data (1250–1900) to disentangle long-term supply-side effects. The growth model reveals how shocks propagate through labor, technology, and capital, generating testable predictions about temporary versus permanent output changes. Empirically, we estimate potential output (i.e., the supply-side proxy) using Hodrick–Prescott filters and the Unobserved Components Model, then apply local projections to quantify dynamic responses to pandemic and war shocks. Results from our integrated framework show that pandemics exert heterogeneous effects on long-term potential output. In the UK, technological adaptations fostered by pandemics boosted potential output in the long run. In France, output fell in the short term, recovered in the medium term, and ultimately converged to zero. In Spain, institutional constraints hindered adaptive responses, producing only adverse outcomes. War shocks had generally weaker supply-side effects, and when present, their impact was merely temporary. Overall, our analysis demonstrates that cross-country institutional characteristics were decisive in shaping divergent recovery paths.