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Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Carstensen, Kai
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Rossian, Thies
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials und der Produktionslücke einer Volkswirtschaft sind von großer Bedeutung für die Wirtschaftspolitik. Sie spielen eine wesentliche Rolle für den Europäischen Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt und für die im Grundgesetz verankerte Schuldenbremse. In der vorliegenden Studie werden die zugrundeliegenden Modelle und Schätzmethoden basierend auf dem Verfahren der Europäischen Kommission kritisch analysiert und es werden Möglichkeiten zur Verbesserung des Verfahrens aufgezeigt.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:19
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2020 - Potenzialwachstum von Corona-V(irus) kaum berührt," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 66, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 19/20, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession?," IfW-Box 2019.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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    Keywords

    Produktionspotenzial; Produktionslücke; Konjunktur; Zyklus; Finanzpolitik; Europäische Kommission; potential output; output gap; business cycle; fiscal policy; European Commission;

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