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Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2020. Wachstumspfad flacht sich ab - zusätzliche Risiken durch die Pandemie

Author

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  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Der Wachstumspfad der deutschen Wirtschaft flacht sich zunehmend ab. In den Jahren 2020-2025 dürfte das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials im Durchschnitt auf unter 1 Prozent fallen. Diese Entwicklung war bereits vor der Corona-Pandemie angelegt und ist maßgeblich vom demografischen Wandel getrieben. Die Auswirkungen der Corona-Krise auf das Produktionspotenzial sind noch schwer absehbar. Im Vergleich zu unserer Projektion vom Frühjahr schätzen wir aktuell das jährliche Potenzialwachstum in der mittleren Frist knapp ein Zehntel geringer. Die Produktionslücke liegt unserer Schätzung zufolge im laufenden Jahr bei -5,5 Prozent und ist damit fast einen Prozentpunkt weiter im negativen Bereich als während der Großen Rezession im Jahr 2009. Ein Großteil davon dürfte bereits im kommenden Jahr abgebaut werden. Für das Jahr 2022 rechnen wir mit einer nahezu geschlossenen Produktionslücke.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2020. Wachstumspfad flacht sich ab - zusätzliche Risiken durch die Pandemie," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 72, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:72
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    1. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2021 - Pandemiebedingte Potenzialschäden eher gering," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 78, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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    Keywords

    Produktionslücke; Produktionspotenzial; Mittelfristprojektion; Totale Faktorproduktivität; Covid-19;
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