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Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter

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  • Quast, Josefine
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

The authors contribute to the debate regarding the reliability of output gap estimates. As an alternative to the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, they propose a simple modification of the filter proposed by Hamilton in 2018 that shares its favorable real-time properties, but leads to a more even coverage of typical business cycle frequencies. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy institutions, they find that real-time output gaps based on the modified Hamilton filter are economically much more meaningful measures of the business cycle than those based on other simple statistical trend-cycle decomposition techniques such as the HP or the Bandpass filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter," IMFS Working Paper Series 133, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:133
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    Cited by:

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    4. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    5. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    6. Böhl, Gregor, 2021. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," IMFS Working Paper Series 148, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Sandra Pasch, 2021. "Income Business Cycles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1964, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2020. Wachstumspfad flacht sich ab - zusätzliche Risiken durch die Pandemie," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 72, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2348, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Dora Xia & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Monetary policy, relative prices and inflation control: flexibility born out of success," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    11. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    15. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    16. Ziwei Mei & Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Papers 2209.09810, arXiv.org.
    17. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; potential output; trend-cycle decomposition; Hamilton filter; real-time data; inflation forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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