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Potential Output in DSGE Models

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Vetlov

    () (Bank of Lithuania)

  • Tibor Hlédik

    () (Czech National Bank)

  • Magnus Jonsson

    () (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Henrik Kucsera

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical estimates of potential output/output gaps on the basis of selected DSGE models developed by the European System of Central Banks’ staff. These estimates are compared to the corresponding estimates obtained applying more traditional methods. Finally, the paper assesses the usefulness of the DSGE model-based output gaps for gauging inflationary pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Vetlov & Tibor Hlédik & Magnus Jonsson & Henrik Kucsera & Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Potential Output in DSGE Models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 9, Bank of Lithuania.
  • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucian Croitoru, 2016. "Are We Systematically Wrong when Estimating Potential Output and the Natural Rate of Interest?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, pages 128-151.
    2. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2016. "Estimating Potential Output in Chile; A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors," IMF Working Papers 16/201, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Johannes Hermanus Kemp, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 549-568, December.
    4. Amador-Torres, Juan S. & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Jaulin-Mendez, Oscar F. & Tenjo-Galarza, Fernando, 2016. "Mind the gap: Computing finance-neutral output gaps in Latin-American economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 444-452.
    5. Patrick Blagrave & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2015. "A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 15/79, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Grech, Aaron George, 2013. "Adapting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for Very Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 48803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Every cloud has a silver lining. The sovereign crisis and Italian potential output," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1010, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2017. "A DSGE model-based analysis of the Indian slowdown," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-003, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Fan Zhang & Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru, 2016. "Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 16/250, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Hetzel, Robert L., 2016. "What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?," Working Paper 16-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2014. "A compact open economy DSGE model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2014-08, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2014, Central Bank of Malta.
    13. Vashchelyuk, N.V. & Zubarev, Andrey & Trunin, Pavel, 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Brian Micallef, 2016. "A Multivariate Filter to Estimate Potential Output and NAIRU for the Maltese Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 13-22, May.
    15. Ali Alichi & Olivier Bizimana & Silvia Domit & Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Douglas Laxton & Kadir Tanyeri & Hou Wang & Fan Zhang, 2015. "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States," IMF Working Papers 15/253, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Silvio Michael de Azevedo Costa, 2016. "Structural Trends and Cycles in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 434, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Polbin, Andrey & Skrobotov, Anton, 2017. "Спектральная Оценка Компоненты Бизнес Цикла Ввп России С Учетом Высокой Зависимости От Условий Торговли
      [Spectral estimation of the business cycle component of the Russian GDP under high dependence
      ," MPRA Paper 78667, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential output; simulation and forecasting models; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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