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Monetary analysis and monetary policy in the euro area 1999-2006

  • Fischer, B.
  • Lenza, M.
  • Pill, H.
  • Reichlin, L.

This paper assesses the practical experience of monetary analysis at the ECB from the introduction of the euro in 1999 through 2006. The paper exploits a unique and rich real-time data set, containing both the vintages of data and the economic models that have been employed in the ECB's monetary analysis during the first eight years of Monetary Union. It embodies both a description of how monetary analysis was conducted over this period and a quantitative evaluation of the indicators of risks to price stability that derived from this analysis. A close investigation of this material is used to evaluate the role monetary analysis has played in the evolution of monetary policy in the euro area.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (November)
Pages: 1138-1164

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:7:p:1138-1164
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand; Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Coenen, Günter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  4. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
  9. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August.
  10. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  11. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
  12. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
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