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Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

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  • Hofmann, Boris

Abstract

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators as well as of a large range of economic and financial indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 considering standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve forecasting models using both ex-post revised and real-time data. The results suggest that the predictive ability of money-based forecasts relative to a simple random walk benchmark model was high at medium-term forecasting horizons in the early years of EMU, but has substantially deteriorated recently. A significantly improved forecasting performance vis-à-vis the random walk can, however, be achieved based on the ECB’s internal M3 series corrected for the effects of portfolio shifts and by combining monetary and economic indicators. JEL Classification: E31, E40, C32

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  • Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 867, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008867
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    Cited by:

    1. Arratibel, Olga & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Kamps, Christophe, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
    2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Perron, Benoit, 2017. "Tests of equal accuracy for nested models with estimated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 231-252.
    3. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Thomas Harjes, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    5. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    6. Roland Vaubel, 2010. "The Euro and the German Veto," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 82-90, January.
    7. Jung, Alexander, 2017. "Forecasting broad money velocity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-432.
    8. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    9. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
    10. Bulíř Aleš & Čihák Martin & Šmídkova Kateřina Š, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
    11. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    13. Alexey Ponomarenko & Elena Vasilieva & Franziska Schobert, 2014. "Feedback to the ECB’s Monetary Analysis: The Bank of Russia’s Experience with Some Key Tools," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 116-150, November.
    14. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    15. Cendejas, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan E. & Muñoz, Félix-Fernando, 2014. "Business cycle, interest rate and money in the euro area: A common factor model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 136-141.
    16. Ana Pereira & João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation with Monetary Aggregates," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    18. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    19. Luetkepohl Helmut & Xu Fang, 2011. "Forecasting Annual Inflation with Seasonal Monthly Data: Using Levels versus Logs of the Underlying Price Index," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, February.
    20. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    21. Babu RAO G., 2020. "Impact of exchange rate regimes on inflation: An empirical analysis of BRICS countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 215-224, Summer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; inflation; Leading indicators; money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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