IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does Money matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs

  • Helge Berger
  • Pär �sterholm

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to assess whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the USA. We investigate the issue of Granger-causality out-of-sample and find that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960--2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be close to negligible in recent subperiods. (JEL codes: E47, E52, E58) Copyright The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifr001
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by CESifo in its journal CESifo Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 57 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 531-550

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:531-550
Contact details of provider: Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://cesifo.oxfordjournals.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  2. Goodfriend, Marvin & King, Robert G., 2005. "The incredible Volcker disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 981-1015, July.
  3. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2001. "Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0121, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Significance tests harm progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 321-327.
  5. Werner, Thomas & Lombardo, Giovanni & Kremer, Jana, 2003. "Money in a New-Keynesian model estimated with German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 0607-16, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Models Without Money," NBER Working Papers 8174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. D'Agostino, A & Surico, P, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," MPRA Paper 6283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Bachmeier, Lance & Leelahanon, Sittisak & Li, Qi, 2007. "Money Growth And Inflation In The United States," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 113-127, February.
  15. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  16. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  17. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 13542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  20. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  21. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.
  22. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Galina Hale & Òscar Jordà, 2007. "Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr13.
  25. Jones, Barry E. & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "Are money and consumption additively separable in the euro area? A non-parametric approach," Working Paper Series 0704, European Central Bank.
  26. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
  27. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1989. "A note on the asymptotic distribution of impulse response functions of estimated var models with orthogonal residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 371-376, November.
  28. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
  29. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  30. Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2005. "Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 369-404.
  31. Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
  32. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  33. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Hofmann, Boris, 2006. "Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  35. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
  36. Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:57:y:2011:i:3:p:531-550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.