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Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area

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  • Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin
  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

Announced in the autumn of 1998, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) quickly became controversial, arguably because the ECB provided neither an explicit representation of the inflation process nor an explanation for why it necessitated the adoption of a two-pillar framework. Several reduced-form empirical models that seek to do so have subsequently been presented in the literature. The hallmark of these models is the hypothesis that inflation can be decomposed into a 'trend', which is explained by a smoothed measure of past money growth, and a deviation from that trend, which is accounted for by the output gap. In this paper we survey this literature, discuss how it relates to the monetary transmission mechanism and extend the inflation equations by introducing cost-push shocks. We find that changes in import prices, oil prices and exchange rates are statistically significant in euro-area inflation equations but that they leave intact the earlier findings that money growth and the output gap matter.

Suggested Citation

  • Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5683
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 57(3), pages 531-550, September.
    3. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2012. "Money and risk in a DSGE framework: A Bayesian application to the Eurozone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-111.
    4. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    5. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
    6. Lahura, Erick, 2010. "Monetary aggregates and monetary policy: an empirical assessment for Peru," Working Papers 2010-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 33-55, May.
    8. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2007. "Two-Pillar Monetary Policy and Bootstrap Expectations," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 282/2007, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    9. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    10. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
    11. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
    12. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    13. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    14. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2008. "Long Run Inflation Indicators – Why the ECB got it Right," Working Papers 2008:17, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    15. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2010. "A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 388-405.
    16. Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Scheide, Joachim, 2007. "Konjunktur im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4002, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    17. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    18. Gabe J. De Bondt, 2010. "New Evidence On The Motives For Holding Euro Area Money," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(3), pages 259-278, June.
    19. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2609-2621.
    20. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    22. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
    23. Nuno Alves & Carlos Robalo Marques & João Sousa, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    24. Jérôme Coffinet & Sylvain Gouteron, 2010. "Euro-Area Yield Curve Reaction to Monetary News," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 208-224, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    frequency domain; Philipps curve; quantity theory; spatial regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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