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Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?

  • Woodford, Michael

Arguments for a prominent role for attention to the growth rate of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy are often based on references to low-frequency reduced-form relationships between money growth and inflation. The 'two-pillar Phillips curve' proposed by Gerlach (2004) has recently attracted a great deal of interest in the euro area, where it is sometimes supposed to provide empirical support for the wisdom of a 'two-pillar strategy' that uses distinct analytical frameworks to assess shorter-run and longer-run risks to price stability. I show, however, that regression coefficients of the kind reported by Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2006a) among others are quite consistent with a 'new Keynesian' model of inflation determination, in which the quantity of money plays no role in inflation determination, at either high or low frequencies. I also show that empirical results of this kind do not in themselves establish that money growth must be useful in forecasting inflation, either in the short run or over a longer run. Hence they provide little support for the ECB's monetary 'pillar'.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6447.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6447
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  1. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bordes, C. & Clerc, L. & Marimoutou, V., 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Working papers 165, Banque de France.
  3. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
  4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  5. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Stefan Gerlach & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2006. "Interpreting Euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," BIS Working Papers 195, Bank for International Settlements.
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  13. Corbae, D. & Ouliaris, S. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1991. "A Rexamination of the Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressions," Working Papers 91-25, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  14. Samuel Reynard, 2007. "Maintaining Low Inflation: Money, Interest Rates, and Policy Stance," Working Papers 2007-05, Swiss National Bank.
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  16. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
  17. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Understanding the Link between Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB'S Money Pillar; An Assessment," IMF Working Papers 03/82, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
  20. Dean Corbea & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "A Reexamination of the Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 997, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  22. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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