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Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Bordes

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laurent Clerc

    (Direction de la Recherche - Banque De France - Banque de France)

  • Vêlayoudom Marimoutou

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We investigate the stability of M3 income velocity in the euro area. We apply a set of breakpoint procedures to examine this issue and conclude that at least one structural change occurred around 2000-2001. We also ...nd evidence of another structural break around 1992-1993. These two breaks seem to a¤ect both the level and the slope of the income velocity of M3. We then estimate a model of equilibrium velocity that factors in the opportunity cost of M3, along the lines suggested by Orphanides and Porter (2000). Here again, we ...nd some evidence of instability in equilibrium velocity. Given the importance of the assumption of stable velocity trends for both the derivation of the reference value and the two-pillar strategy of the Eurosystem, these findings question the relevance of some excess liquidity indicators directly computed from the reference value and may call for some adjustments in the conduct of the ECB's monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Post-Print hal-00308654, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00308654
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00308654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 524-533, 04-05.
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    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262513374, December.
    5. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Price Stability And The Ecb'S Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 268-326, April.
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    7. Carlson, John B. & Craig, Ben & Schwarz, Jeffrey C., 2000. "Structural uncertainty and breakpoint tests: an application to equilibrium velocity1," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 101-115.
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    Cited by:

    1. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Barthélemy, Jean & Clerc, Laurent & Marx, Magali, 2011. "A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1303-1316, May.
    4. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    5. Scott Benolkin & George A. Kahn, 2007. "The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so differently?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q III), pages 5-36.
    6. Clerc, L., 2007. "Understanding Asset Prices: Determinants and Policy Implications," Working papers 168, Banque de France.
    7. Jung, Alexander, 2017. "Forecasting broad money velocity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-432.
    8. Lydia Ndirangu & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo, 2015. "Financial Innovations and Their Implications for Monetary Policy in Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(suppl_1), pages 46-71.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, October.
    10. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Upswing interrupted," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.
    12. Gabe J. De Bondt, 2010. "New Evidence On The Motives For Holding Euro Area Money," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(3), pages 259-278, June.
    13. MEZUI-MBENG, Pamphile, 2010. "Tramsission de la politique monétaire: le cas des pays de la CEMAC [Monetary policy transmission: the case of the CEMAC]," MPRA Paper 26032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Stéphane Sorbe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Medium-term inflation forecast: The dilemma of the two pillar strategy of the European Central Bank," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 16-24, June.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7umo3loae88ks85fddjte9ieal is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Legrand, Romain, 2014. "Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-151.
    17. Nuno Alves, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Breakpoint tests; ECB; M3 velocity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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