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Estimating the Market Effect of a Trade War: The Case of Soybean Tariffs

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  • Adjemian, Michael K.
  • Smith, Aaron
  • He, Wendi

Abstract

In 2018, China retaliated to U.S. trade action by levying a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybean exports. That tariff shifted market preferences so that Chinese buyers favored Brazilian soybeans. We use the relative price of a substitute (RPS) method to estimate that the resulting trade disruption effectively drove a wedge into the world soybean market, lowering U.S. prices at Gulf export locations by $0.65/bu on average for about five months, and increasing Brazilian prices by about $0.95/bu, compared to what would have been observed without the tariff in place. It is likely that the impact of China’s tariff on producers and purchasers of soybeans across the United States was heterogeneous and affected by local factors like transportation infrastructure, storage capacity, and crush facility proximity.

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  • Adjemian, Michael K. & Smith, Aaron & He, Wendi, 2019. "Estimating the Market Effect of a Trade War: The Case of Soybean Tariffs," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 292089, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea19:292089
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.292089
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yu, Jisang & Villoria, Nelson B. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2022. "The incidence of foreign market tariffs on farmland rental rates," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Murphy, Ashling M. & Morgan, Stephen & Padilla, Samantha & Key, Nigel, 2023. "Explaining the Source of Racial Disparities in Market Facilitation Program (MFP) Payments," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 337402, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Melissa G.S. McKendree & Tina L. Saitone & K. Aleks Schaefer, 2021. "Oligopsonistic Input Substitution in a Thin Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1414-1432, August.
    6. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    7. Jingyi Liu & Xiande Li & Junmao Sun, 2023. "China-Australia Trade Relations and China’s Barley Imports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, July.
    8. McKendree, Melissa G. S. & Saitone, Tina L. & Schaefer, K Aleks, 2020. "Cattle Cycle Dynamics in a Modern Agricultural Market: Competition in Holstein Cattle Procurement," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304380, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Ridley, William & Devadoss, Stephen, . "Determinants of Policy Responses in the US–China Tit-for-Tat Trade War," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 49(2).
    10. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    11. Jason H. Grant & Shawn Arita & Charlotte Emlinger & Robert Johansson & Chaoping Xie, 2021. "Agricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflict," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 619-640, June.
    12. William Ridley & Stephen Devadoss, 2023. "Competition and trade policy in the world cotton market: Implications for US cotton exports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1365-1387, October.
    13. Lee, Meongsu & Westhoff, Patrick, 2020. "The U.S.-China Trade war and Impact on Land Returning to Soybean Production from the Conservation Reserve Program," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304518, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Tao Xiong & Wendong Zhang & Fangxiao Zhao, 2023. "When China strikes: Quantifying Australian companies' stock price responses to China's trade restrictions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(4), pages 636-671, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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