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Upswing interrupted

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

On 18 October 2007 the economic institutes in the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group presented their autumn 2007 forecast to the press in Berlin. In their estimation, the world economy is sill expanding robustly in autumn 2007 although the downside risks have increased. The problems in the financial markets caused by the real-estate crisis in the United States led to a new appraisal of credit risks. Many fear that this could increase the financing costs for enterprises and could burden activity in the real economy. Presumably the greatest risk for economic activity in the world economy will come from the real-estate crisis in the United States. It could drag out longer and weaken US economic activity more noticeably than is assumed in this forecast. The impact of recessive tendencies in the US for the euro area could be intensified if the euro increases more in value over the dollar.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Upswing interrupted," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:20:p:03-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2007. "Boom in plant and equipment spending peaks out - business expectations in leasing moving sideways," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(23), pages 32-35, December.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Abschwächung der Konjunktur in Deutschland - was nun zu tun ist," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4307, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gebhardt, Heinz & Siemers, Lars-H. R., 2007. "Haushaltsgesetz 2008 und Finanzplanung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen 2007 - 2011: Drucksache 14/4600," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70838.
    4. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    5. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages .28-32, February.
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Van Roye, Björn & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 449/450, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Joint Economic Analysis in Spring 2008: Economic Activity Hampered by the Repercussions Impact of the US Real-estate Crisis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(08), pages 03-71, April.
    8. Bert Rürup, 2008. "Protection from low wages or job destroyer:Pros and cons of a statutory minimum wage," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(06), pages 05-07, March.
    9. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 28-32, 02.
    10. Boss, Alfred, 2007. "Wohin mit den Überschüssen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit?," Kiel Working Papers 1384, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Margit Schratzenstaller, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Tools of Compensating for Inflation," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 13(4), pages 144-155, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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