IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v60y2007i11p16-24.html

Mittelfristige Inflationsprognose: Das Dilemma der Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der EZB

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Sorbe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Ein Ziel der EZB ist es, die Preisstabilität in der Eurozone zu gewährleisten. Beim Streben nach Preisstabilität zielt die EZB darauf ab, Preissteigerungsraten von unter, aber nahe 2% sicherzustellen. Mit dieser quantitativen Definition will die EZB eine Verankerung der Inflationserwartungen in der Eurozone erreichen, die dazu beitragen soll, die Volatilität in der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung zu verringern. Neben der Definition von Preisstabilität besteht die geldpolitische Strategie aus einer umfassenden Beurteilung der Risiken für die Preisstabilität, die sich aus der monetären und der wirtschaftlichen (nicht-monetären) Analyse (sog. Zwei-Säulen-Strategie) zusammensetzt. In diesem Beitrag werden die derzeitigen Risiken für die Preisstabilität in der Eurozone näher untersucht. In enger Anlehnung an die Strategie der EZB werden ein monetärer (Geldmenge M3) und ein nicht-monetärer (Nominallöhne) Indikator betrachtet und zur Inflationsprognose im Euroraum verwendet. Es zeigt sich, dass beide Indikatoren gute Prognoseeigenschaften für die mittelfristige Inflationsentwicklung aufweisen. Ihre jüngsten Entwicklungen führen allerdings zu völlig unterschiedlichen Einschätzungen der Gefahren für die Preisstabilität, was die EZB vor ein Dilemma stellt.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Sorbe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Mittelfristige Inflationsprognose: Das Dilemma der Zwei-Säulen-Strategie der EZB," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 16-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:11:p:16-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2007_11_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    2. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Post-Print hal-00308654, HAL.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Aufschwung legt Pause ein," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7umo3loae88ks85fddjte9ieal is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    4. Barthélemy, Jean & Clerc, Laurent & Marx, Magali, 2011. "A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1303-1316, May.
    5. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," CEU Working Papers 2012_13, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 23 Jul 2012.
    7. Camila Figueroa & Jorge Fornero & Pablo García, 2019. "Hindsight vs. Real time measurement of the output gap: Implications for the Phillips curve in the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 854, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.
    10. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
    12. Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Jung, Alexander, 2025. "The quantity theory of money: An empirical analysis for 1870 - 2020," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Scott Benolkin & George A. Kahn, 2007. "The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so differently?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q III), pages 5-36.
    15. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Nuno Alves, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 161-187, May.
    18. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    19. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    20. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
    21. Beck, Günther W. & Beyer, Robert C. M. & Kontny, Markus & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Monetary Cross-Checking in Practice," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113126, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:11:p:16-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.