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Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Robalo Marques
  • João Sousa
  • Nuno Alves

Abstract

This paper reassesses the role of the M3 aggregate for monetary policy purposes in the euro area. Using data until 2006Q4 it is shown that the M3 aggregate ceased to display the empirical properties that supported its prominent role in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. On the one hand, when the most recent data are used in the analysis there is strong evidence of cointegration breakdown in the M3 money demand models as well as in the "two-pillar Phillips curves" with filtered data. On the other hand, the leading indicator properties of M3 for inflation in the area have also deteriorated markedly in the most recent years. This is supported by evidence both in the time and frequency domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Robalo Marques & João Sousa & Nuno Alves, 2007. "Is the euro area M3 abandoning us?," Working Papers w200720, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
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    12. Carlos Robalo Marques & João Sousa & Nuno Alves, 2006. "Some Issues Concerning the Use of M3 for Monetary Policy Analysis in the Euro Area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Bruggeman, Annick & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Fischer, Björn & Sousa, João, 2005. "Structural filters for monetary analysis: the inflationary movements of money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 470, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    2. Ralph Setzer & Guntram Wolff, 2013. "Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 297-315, June.
    3. António Rua, 2011. "Money growth and inflation in the euro area: a time-frequency view," Working Papers w201122, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Matteo Farn'e & Angela Montanari, 2018. "A bootstrap test to detect prominent Granger-causalities across frequencies," Papers 1803.00374, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    5. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2010. "On the Sources of Euro Area Money Demand Stability. A Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Ludomir Slahor & Daniela Majercakova & Alexandra Mittelman, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Correlation between the Monetary Aggregates and the Price Level in Euro Area in the Years 2004 - 2013," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(1), pages 38-50.
    7. Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Composite indicators for monetary analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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