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Money growth and inflation in the euro area: a time-frequency view

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  • António Rua

Abstract

This paper provides new insights on the relationship between money growth and inflation in the euro area over the last forty years. This highly relevant link for the European Central Bank monetary policy strategy is assessed using wavelet analysis. In particular, wavelet analysis allows to study simultaneously the relationship between money growth and inflation in the euro area at the frequency level and assess how it has changed over time. The findings indicate a stronger link between inflation and money growth at low frequencies over the whole sample period. At the typical business cycle frequency range the link is only present until the beginning of the 1980’s. Moreover, there seems to be a recent deterioration of the leading properties of money growth with respect to inflation in the euro area. These results highlight the importance of a regular assessment of the role of money growth in tracking inflation developments in the euro area since such relationship varies across frequencies and over time.

Suggested Citation

  • António Rua, 2011. "Money growth and inflation in the euro area: a time-frequency view," Working Papers w201122, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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