IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach

  • Amisano, Gianni
  • Fagan, Gabriel

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and Canada for data from the 1960s up to the present. Our estimates suggest that a smoothed measure of broad money growth, corrected for real-time estimates of trend velocity and potential output growth, has important leading indicator properties for switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price stability. JEL Classification: C11, C53, E31

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1207.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1207.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101207
Contact details of provider: Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  2. Andrew J. Filardo, 1993. "Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics," Research Working Paper 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/30, European University Institute.
  4. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro-zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  7. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
  9. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
  10. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
  11. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  12. Paul Grauwe, 2009. "The Euro at ten: achievements and challenges," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 5-20, February.
  13. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  16. Cherie Metcalf & Angela Redish & Ronald Shearer, 1998. "New Estimates of the Canadian Money Stock: 1871-1967," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 104-124, February.
  17. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  18. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
  19. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2011. "Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1-29, January/F.
  21. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A, 2003. " Nonlinear Equilibrium Correction in U.S. Real Money Balances, 1869-1997," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 787-99, October.
  22. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2006. "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England.
  23. Juan Ayuso & Graciela L. Kaminsky & David López-Salido, 2003. "Inflation regimes and stabilisation policies: Spain 1962-2001," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 615-631, September.
  24. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  25. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Sargent, Thomas & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory," Discussion Papers 26, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.