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Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach

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  • Amisano, Gianni
  • Fagan, Gabriel

Abstract

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and Canada for data from the 1960s up to the present. Our estimates suggest that a smoothed measure of broad money growth, corrected for real-time estimates of trend velocity and potential output growth, has important leading indicator properties for switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price stability. JEL Classification: C11, C53, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2010. "Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach," Working Paper Series 1207, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101207
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    Cited by:

    1. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
    2. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2015. "Consumer and asset prices: Some recent evidence," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2015, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
    3. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    5. Cruz, Christopher John & Mapa, Dennis, 2013. "An Early Warning System for Inflation in the Philippines Using Markov-Switching and Logistic Regression Models," MPRA Paper 50078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:spr:ijsaem:v:8:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s13198-017-0616-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
    8. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2016. "Changes in Inflation Predictability in Major Latin American Countries," Working Papers 2016-20, Banco de México.
    9. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    11. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    12. Egorov D.A. & Perevyshina E.A., 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Colavecchio, Roberta & Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2014. "A money-based indicator for deflation risk," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100595, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. repec:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:12:n:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Luca Sessa, 2012. "Economic (in)stability under monetary targeting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 858, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
    17. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; early warning; inflation regimes; Markov Switching model; money growth; time varying transition probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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