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Time variation in inflation persistence: New evidence from modelling US inflation

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  • Granville, Brigitte
  • Zeng, Ning

Abstract

This article explores how inflation persistence relates to the conduct and goals of monetary policy by presenting a new approach to modelling US inflation persistence and the Fed's dual mandate. Our framework fills a gap in pre-existing models by more flexibly accounting for diverse dynamic properties and shocks. Estimating a Phillips Curve model augmented with inflation volatilities and expectations, we find that the degree of monthly inflation persistence is time variant since World War II. Variations in persistence continue to be observed regardless of the absolute level of inflation and the extent of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. We demonstrate that inflation persistence varies in line with expectations formed by memories of past inflation. This supports the case for more flexible monetary policy at times, as in the 1980s or especially the present decade, when inflation is more persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Granville, Brigitte & Zeng, Ning, 2019. "Time variation in inflation persistence: New evidence from modelling US inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:30-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.12.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation persistence; Monetary policy; Phillips curve; Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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