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The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics

  • Alexander Mihailov

    ()

    (School of Economics, University of Reading)

  • Fabio Rumler

    ()

    (Economic Analysis Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Johann Scharler

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Linz)

This paper applies GMM estimation to assess empirically the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005). We obtain a testable specification where fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as a more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap. Overall, our results indicate some, albeit moderate, support for the tested relationship based on data from ten OECD countries typically classified as open economies.

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Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series Economics & Management Discussion Papers with number em-dp2008-63.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2008-63
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  1. Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Open Access publications 10197/249, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 11806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  6. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
  7. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips Curve: Closed Economy versus Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
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  14. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2007. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 405-426, September.
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  18. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 102, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  21. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy: Outcome of Globalization?," NBER Working Papers 13280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Re-examining the Importance of Trade Openness for Aggregate Instability," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2007-52, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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  25. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2003. "Erratum to "European inflation dynamics": [European Economic Review 45 (2001), 1237-1270]," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 759-760, August.
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  27. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
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