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The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics

  • Alexander Mihailov
  • Fabio Rumler
  • Johann Scharler

This paper applies GMMestimation to assess empirically the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005). We obtain a testable specification where fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as a more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap. Overall, our results indicate some, albeit moderate, support for the tested relationship based on data from ten OECD countries typically classified as open economies.

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File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2008/wp0817.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2008-17.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2008_17
Contact details of provider: Fax: +43 732-2468-8238
Web page: http://www.econ.jku.at/

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  1. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
  2. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2001. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 11806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  7. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Staff Reports 204, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2002. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," Working Papers 2002_8, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  12. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Globalization and Monetary Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 6448, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2003. "Erratum to "European inflation dynamics": [European Economic Review 45 (2001), 1237-1270]," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 759-760, August.
  14. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. William R White, 2008. "Globalisation and the determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 250, Bank for International Settlements.
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  17. Fabio Rumler, 2005. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 102, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  19. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2002. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips curve: closed economy versus open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-9, March.
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  21. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Re-examining the Importance of Trade Openness for Aggregate Instability," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2007-52, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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  24. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
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  26. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  27. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
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