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Globalization, macroeconomic performance, and monetary policy

  • Frederic S. Mishkin

The paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up. Globalization does, however, have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting economic growth. The paper then examines four questions about the impact of globalization on the monetary transmission mechanism and arrives at the following answers: (i) Has globalization led to a decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic output gaps and thus to domestic monetary policy? No. (ii) Are foreign output gaps playing a more prominent role in the domestic inflation process, so that domestic monetary policy has more difficulty stabilizing inflation? No. (iii) Can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output? Yes. (iv) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? Yes. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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Article provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2008:x:1
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  1. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust & David López-Salido, 2008. "International competition and inflation: a New Keynesian perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 918, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International capital flows and U.S. interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
  5. Nigel Pain & Isabell Koske & Marte Sollie, 2006. "Globalisation and Inflation in the OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 524, OECD Publishing.
  6. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
  7. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, 09.
  10. Erceg, Christopher & Gust, Christopher & López-Salido, J David, 2007. "The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  12. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2007. "Outsourcing and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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