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Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a vertical production chain approach

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  • Adam Hale Shapiro

Abstract

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with GMM using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the model. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost, even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant towards the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Hale Shapiro, 2006. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a vertical production chain approach," Working Papers 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:06-11
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    Cited by:

    1. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
    2. Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Zin, Stanley E., 2013. "Identifying Taylor rules in macro-finance models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna, 2008. "Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3817-3825.
    4. Gwin, Carl R. & VanHoose, David D., 2008. "Alternative measures of marginal cost and inflation in estimations of new Keynesian inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 928-940, September.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    6. Hiona Balfoussia & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Manthos D. Delis, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," Working Papers 138, Bank of Greece.
    7. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2010. "Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 198-216, August.
    8. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Testing for weak identification in possibly nonlinear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 246-261, April.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Tripathi, Shruti, 2015. "Separating shocks from cyclicality in Indian aggregate supply," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 93-103.
    10. Abe Dunn & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2011. "Physician Market Power and Medical-Care Expenditures," BEA Working Papers 0078, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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    Keywords

    Phillips curve ; Keynesian economics;

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