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Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a vertical production chain approach

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Abstract

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with GMM using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the model. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost, even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant towards the model.

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  • Adam Hale Shapiro, 2006. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a vertical production chain approach," Working Papers 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:06-11
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    Cited by:

    1. Yhlas SOVBETOV & Muhittin KAPLAN, 2019. "Empirical examination of the stability of expectations – Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 63-78, Summer.
    2. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna, 2008. "Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3817-3825.
    4. Abe Dunn & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2011. "Physician Market Power and Medical-Care Expenditures," BEA Working Papers 0078, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    5. Goyal, Ashima & Tripathi, Shruti, 2015. "Separating shocks from cyclicality in Indian aggregate supply," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 93-103.
    6. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
    7. Hiona Balfoussia & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Manthos D. Delis, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," Working Papers 138, Bank of Greece.
    8. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2013. "Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-finance Models," Working Papers 13-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    9. Gwin, Carl R. & VanHoose, David D., 2008. "Alternative measures of marginal cost and inflation in estimations of new Keynesian inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 928-940, September.
    10. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2010. "Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 198-216, August.
    11. Yoshibumi Makabe & Yosuke Matsumoto & Wataru Hirata, 2023. "Estimating Pipeline Pressures in New Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Bayesian VAR-GMM Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    12. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Testing for weak identification in possibly nonlinear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 246-261, April.
    13. Régis Barnichon & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(04), pages 1-05, February.
    14. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2018. "Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    Phillips curve; Keynesian economics;

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