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Separating Shocks from Cyclicality in Indian Aggregate Supply

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  • Ashima Goyal

    ()

  • Shruti Tripathi

Abstract

An ongoing debate on the shape of the Indian aggregate supply curve (AS) raises interesting econometric and policy issues. Systematic steps were taken to improve the estimation. On adding better variable definitions, a positive slope got, but on using a better measure of supply-shocks the slope decreases in size. The result that the Indian Aggregare Ssupply curve is relatively flat, but subject to frequent shifts, suggests the output cost of disinflation can be high, but the way to moderate it is to address the factors causing shifts of the curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2015. "Separating Shocks from Cyclicality in Indian Aggregate Supply," Working Papers id:6673, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:6673
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goyal, Ashima, 2012. "Propagation Mechanisms in Inflation: Governance as key," MPRA Paper 46360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
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    4. Shruti Tripathi & Ashima Goyal, 2013. "Relative Prices, Price Level and Inflation: Effects of Asymmetric and Sticky Adjustment," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 41-61, April.
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    6. Goyal, Ashima & Pujari, Ayan Kumar, 2005. "Identifying long run supply curve of India," MPRA Paper 24021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    13. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    14. Shruti Tripathi & Ashima Goyal, 2011. "Relative prices, the price level and inflation: Effects of asymmetric and sticky adjustment," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2011-026, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    15. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    16. Sitikantha Pattanaik & G.V. Nadhanael, 2013. "Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 204-220, September.
    17. Singh, B. Karan & Kanakaraj, A. & Sridevi, T.O., 2011. "Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-258, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2016. "Abductive Reasoning in Macroeconomics," Working Papers id:11272, eSocialSciences.
    2. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' Inflation Expectations in India: Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Financial Uncertainty Spill-over," Working Papers id:11890, eSocialSciences.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2018. "Money and Business Cycle: Evidence From India," Working Papers id:12925, eSocialSciences.
    4. Harendra Behera & Garima Wahi & Muneesh Kapur, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," Working Papers id:11973, eSocialSciences.
    5. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    6. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "The Indian fiscal-monetary framework: Dominance or coordination?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2018-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    7. Ashima Goyal, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy in emerging markets," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 101-108, July.
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2016. "Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-70.
    9. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price adjustment; Indian aggregate supply; slope; shocks; firms' price-setting; marginal costs; inflation; output; cyclicality;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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