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Abductive reasoning in macroeconomics

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  • Ashima Goyal

    () (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

Macroeconomic analytical frameworks change with events they are unable to explain. The process is closer to abductive reasoning that is based on both events and analysis, unlike induction which is data-based and deduction where analysis dominates. Abduction reasons backwards from the outcome, to deduce the framework with which it is compatible. Therefore it is useful to study how macroeconomic conceptual frameworks evolve after anomalous outcomes such as crises. The post-crisis churning is assessed from this perspective using criteria such as greater generality, systemic feedback, and structural aspects. Abductive reasoning is also used to extract the structure of aggregate demand and supply consistent with the observed negative correlation inflation and growth in India. If prolonged growth slowdowns do not reduce inflation, it suggests underlying aggregate supply is elastic but volatile, so that supply-side issues, not excess demand, are primary inflation drivers. Monetary and fiscal policy need to focus on elements that reduce costs, while avoiding sharp cuts in aggregate demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2016. "Abductive reasoning in macroeconomics," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-022, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2016-022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 2012. "India's fiscal and monetary framework: growth in an opening economy," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 108-123, July.
    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    7. Sitikantha Pattanaik & G.V. Nadhanael, 2013. "Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 204-220, September.
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    9. Diane Coyle, 2010. "Introduction," Introductory Chapters,in: The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters: Revised Edition Princeton University Press.
    10. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ashima Goyal & Akash Kumar Baikar, 2014. "Psychology, cyclicality or social programs: Rural wage and inflation dynamics in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    12. Dilip M. Nachane, 2016. "Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) modelling: Theory and practice," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Abduction; Evolution of macroeconomics; Global financial crisis; Aggregate demand and supply;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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