IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective

Listed author(s):
  • Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)
  • Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)
  • Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)

This paper investigates the performances of an inflation targeting regime in a learning economy, whose functioning is tackled through an Agent-Based Model (ABM). While the structure of our ABM has common features with that of the New Keynesian canonical modelling framework, we model individual agents\' forms of behaviour under procedural rationality in the sense of Simon (1971). Instead of assuming that they fully optimize on an intertemporal basis beforehand, and make use of rational expectations in that respect, agents are supposed to adopt economic forms of behaviour that are guided by simple rules of thumb -- or heuristics -- while a continuous learning process governs the evolution of those simple rules. Departures from the rational expectations equilibrium endogenously arise from those learning rules. Subsequently, the central bank implements an inflation targeting regime via a monetary policy rule. Our aim is to analyse the interplay between the learning mechanisms operating at the individual level, and the features and performances of the inflation targeting regime. In such a setting, we show the primary importance of the credibility of central bank announcements regarding macroeconomic stabilization outcomes, as well as the beneficial role played by the inflation target as an anchoring device for private inflation expectations. We also demonstrate the potential welfare cost of imperfect public information, and contribute to the debate on optimal monetary policy rule under uncertainty

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cahiersdugretha.u-bordeaux4.fr/2012/2012-15.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée in its series Cahiers du GREThA with number 2012-15.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2012-15
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Avenue Léon Duguit, 33608 Pessac Cedex

Phone: +33 (0)5.56.84.25.75
Fax: +33 (0)5.56.84.86.47
Web page: http://gretha.u-bordeaux4.fr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Edoardo Gaffeo & Domenico Delli Gatti & Saul Desiderio & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "Adaptive Microfoundations for Emergent Macroeconomics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 441-463.
  2. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jasmina Arifovic & James Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 38-76, 03.
  4. Alan Kirman, 2011. "Learning in Agent-based Models," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 20-27.
  5. Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre & Salle, Isabelle & Zumpe, Martin, 2014. "Learning The Optimal Buffer-Stock Consumption Rule Of Carroll," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 727-752, June.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 19-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  8. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
  9. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  10. Walsh, Carl E., 2013. "Announcements and the Role of Policy Guidance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 575-600.
  11. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, 04.
  12. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
  13. Demertzis Maria & Viegi Nicola, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: A Framework for Communication," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
  14. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
  15. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
  17. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  18. Michael W. M. Roos & Ulrich Schmidt, 2012. "The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 196-210, 05.
  19. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, July.
  20. Svensson, Lars E O, 2009. "Transparency under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Experiences and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 7213, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Spencer Dale & Athanasios Orphanides & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 3-39, June.
  22. Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Transparency, Flexibility, and Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 7, pages 227-263 Central Bank of Chile.
  23. Martin Fukac, 2008. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning,and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  24. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
  25. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2008. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 236-240, May.
  26. Soderstrom, Ulf, 2002. " Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145.
  27. Lengnick, Matthias, 2013. "Agent-based macroeconomics: A baseline model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 102-120.
  28. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
  29. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
  30. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
  31. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
  32. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
  33. repec:adr:anecst:y:2011:i:103-104:p:09 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
  35. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  36. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 831-880 Elsevier.
  37. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
  38. Kozo Ueda, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Multiple Equilibria," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(3), pages 145-167, September.
  39. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 369-397, May.
  40. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  41. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  42. Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Optimal Economic Transparency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 5-36, March.
  43. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  44. Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2008. "Integrating Real and Financial Markets in an Agent-Based Economic Model: An Application to Monetary Policy Design," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 147-162, September.
  45. Brenner, Thomas, 2006. "Agent Learning Representation: Advice on Modelling Economic Learning," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 895-947 Elsevier.
  46. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  47. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
  48. Leijonhufvud, Axel, 2006. "Agent-Based Macro," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 36, pages 1625-1637 Elsevier.
  49. Arifovic, Jasmina, 2000. "Evolutionary Algorithms In Macroeconomic Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 373-414, September.
  50. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Response to Cost-Push Shocks: The Impact of Central Bank Communication," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 31-52, June.
  51. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  52. Domenico Delli Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2005. "The Apprentice Wizard: Montetary Policy, Complexity And Learning," New Mathematics and Natural Computation (NMNC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 109-128.
  53. Oeffner, Marc, 2008. "Agent–Based Keynesian Macroeconomics - An Evolutionary Model Embedded in an Agent–Based Computer Simulation," MPRA Paper 18199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
  54. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2012-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emmanuel Petit)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.