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Agent–Based Keynesian Macroeconomics - An Evolutionary Model Embedded in an Agent–Based Computer Simulation

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  • Oeffner, Marc

Abstract

Subject of the present study is the agent-based computer simulation of Agent Island. Agent Island is a macroeconomic model, which belongs to the field of monetary theory. Agent-based modeling is an innovative tool that made much progress in other scientific fields like medicine or logistics. In economics this tool is quite new, and in monetary theory to this date virtual no agent-based simulation model has been developed. It is therefore the topic of this study to close this gap to some extend. Hence, the model integrates in a straightforward way next to the common private sectors (i.e. households, consumer goods firms and capital goods firms)and as an innovation a banking system, a central bank and a monetary circuit. Thereby, the central bank controls the business cycle via an interest rate policy; the according mechanism builds on the seminal idea of Knut Wicksell (natural rate of interest vs. money rate of interest). In addition, the model contains also many Keynesian features and a flow-of-funds accounting system in the tradition of Wolfgang Stützel. Importantly, one objective of the study is the validation of Agent Island, which means that the individual agents (i.e. their rules, variables and parameters) are adjusted in such a way that on the aggregate level certain phenomena emerge. The crucial aspect of the modeling and the validation is therefore the relation between the micro and macro level: Every phenomenon on the aggregate level (e.g. some stylized facts of the business cycle, the monetary transmission mechanism, the Phillips curve relationship, the Keynesian paradox of thrift or the course of the business cycle) emerges out of individual actions and interactions of the many thousand agents on Agent Island. In contrast to models comprising a representative agent, we do not apply a modeling on the aggregate level; and in contrast to orthodox GE models, true interaction between heterogeneous agents takes place (e.g. by face-to-face-trading).

Suggested Citation

  • Oeffner, Marc, 2008. "Agent–Based Keynesian Macroeconomics - An Evolutionary Model Embedded in an Agent–Based Computer Simulation," MPRA Paper 18199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18199
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18199/1/MPRA_paper_18199.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 413-432, August.
    3. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 831-880 Elsevier.
    4. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 3-34, February.
    5. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    6. Leijonhufvud, Axel, 2006. "Agent-Based Macro," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 36, pages 1625-1637 Elsevier.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Isabelle Salle & Murat Yıldızoğlu, 2014. "Efficient Sampling and Meta-Modeling for Computational Economic Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 507-536, December.
    2. Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre & Salle, Isabelle & Zumpe, Martin, 2014. "Learning The Optimal Buffer-Stock Consumption Rule Of Carroll," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 727-752, June.
    3. Mellár, Tamás & Hau, Orsolya & Sebestyén, Tamás, 2013. "Láthatóvá tehető-e a láthatatlan kéz? Egy ágensalapú piaci modell tapasztalatai
      [Can the invisible hand be rendered visible? Experiences of an agent-based market model]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 992-1024.
    4. Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
    5. Salle, Isabelle & Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre, 2013. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-128.
    6. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina, 2014. "Computational modeling of an economy using elements of artificial intelligence," ISU General Staff Papers 201401010800005291, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Salle, Isabelle L., 2015. "Modeling expectations in agent-based models — An application to central bank's communication and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-141.
    8. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "The agent-based Solow growth model with endogenous business cycles," Economics Working Papers 2015-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    9. Váry, Miklós, 2015. "Piaci alkalmazkodás ragadós árak mellett - Calvo-típusú ármerevség egy ágensalapú modellben
      [Market adjustment under sticky prices: the price rigidity of a Calvo type in an agent-based model]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 48-77.
    10. Domenico Gatti & Saul Desiderio, 2015. "Monetary policy experiments in an agent-based model with financial frictions," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 265-286, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multi-agent system ; agent-based macroeconomic computer simulation ; stock-flow consistent; monetary theory ; Keynesian model; Wicksellian model; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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