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How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment

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  • Isabelle SALLE
  • Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS
  • Murat YILDIZOGLU

Abstract

This paper revisits the benefits of explicitly announcing an inflation target for the con- duct of monetary policy in the framework of an agent-based model (ABM). This framework offers a flexible tool for modeling heterogeneity among individual agents and their bounded rationality, and to emphasize, on this basis, the role of learning in macroeconomic dynamics. We consider that those three features (heterogeneity, bounded rationality, and learning) are particularly relevant if one desires to question the rationale for the monetary authorities to be transparent about the inflation target, and to achieve credibility. Indeed, the inflation targeting’s potential role in anchoring inflation expectations and stabilizing the inflation and the economy can be analyzed more realistically if we do not assume a representative agent framework based on substantial rationality in behaviors and expectations. Our results show that a dynamic loop between credibility and success can arise, and stabilize inflation, but only in the case of a learning environment that corresponds to a moderate degree in heterogeneity regarding the behavior and decisions of individual agents. In a more general way, we analyze, using this ABM, different assumptions about the nature of the economic volatility, and the degree of disclosure of the target.

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  • Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
  • Handle: RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2013-24
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Salle, Isabelle L., 2015. "Modeling expectations in agent-based models — An application to central bank's communication and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-141.
    3. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model," Post-Print hal-01768441, HAL.
    4. Helder Ferreira Mendonça & André Filipe Guedes Almeida, 2019. "Importance of credibility for business confidence: evidence from an emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1979-1996, December.
    5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
    6. Krug, Sebastian, 2018. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks 'lean against the wind' to foster macro-financial stability?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-69.
    7. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    8. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    9. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    10. Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: Insights from an agent-based model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting; Credibility; Expectations; Agent-Based Model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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