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Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?

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  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira

Abstract

This study is a contribution to the literature concerning credibility and its effect on the distribution between forward-looking behavior and backward-looking behavior for formation of inflation expectations in the case of emerging economies. Based on data gathered from seven inflation targeting emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey), this paper analyzes how much the credibility associated with the inflation target contributes to anchoring expectations. The findings denote that although credibility is relevant to reduce inflation expectations, these countries present low monetary credibility and thus the backward-looking behavior is predominant for the formation of inflation expectations. Therefore, in order to improve the expectations channel of monetary policy in emerging economies, a policy of increasing transparency regarding inflation expectations is mandatory to the central banks’ task of anchoring inflation expectations.

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  • de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:6:p:1165-1181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Garcia, Pedro Mendes, 2023. "Effects of oil shocks and central bank credibility on price diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 304-317.
    2. Harsha Paranavithana & Leandro Magnusson & Rod Tyers, 2020. "Transitions to inflation targeting: panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(59), pages 6468-6481, December.
    3. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Eduardo Schirmer Finn, 2022. "Can credibility offset electricity price effect on business confidence? An empirical investigation from a large emerging economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 1229-1242, March.
    4. Khaliq Ul Rehman & Ghulam Ghouse, 2024. "Examining Inflation Expectations within Asian Economies: Application of Wavelet Quantile Analysis towards Assessing Monetary Policy Credibility," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 6(1), pages 70-80.
    5. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Simão Filho, José & Abreu, Vanessa Castro, 2023. "Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    6. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & José Simão Filho & Elder Tiago C. de Souza, 2023. "Can central bank credibility promote a substitution effect in the monetary transmission mechanism?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(51), pages 5975-5990, November.
    7. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    8. Aslı Güler, 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Credibility Help in Anchoring Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Six Inflation Targeting Emerging Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(1), pages 93-111.
    9. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Deus, Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos, 2019. "Central bank forecasts and private expectations: An empirical assessment from three emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibility; Inflation expectations; Inflation targeting; Emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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