IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201239.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation dynamics in Tunisia: A Markov-Switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Khemiri, Rim
  • Ali, Mohamed Sami Ben

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Tunisia over the period 2001-2009. The authors' objective is to track inflation regimes for the Tunisian economy and to forecast its determinants. Using a Markov-switching approach, the authors identified two main regimes for inflation in Tunisia over this period: a low and stable inflation regime associated with a low pass-through level, and a high inflation regime associated with a high pass-through level. In order to highlight the mechanisms underlying shifts in inflation regimes, the authors used a time-varying probabilities approach and identified a set of variables to assess their effect on inflation in Tunisia. The results show that the price level decreases in response to an increase in interest rates. Along with this, the empirical results provide strong evidence that industrial production indices have a negative and significant effect in increasing the probability to stay in an inflationary regime and a high pass-through level. In addition, the results show robust supports to suggest that the imports increase the probability to stay in a high inflation regime and a high pass-through level. However, exports increase the probability to stay in a low inflation regime and a low pass-through level.

Suggested Citation

  • Khemiri, Rim & Ali, Mohamed Sami Ben, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation dynamics in Tunisia: A Markov-Switching approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2012-39
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/61999/1/72201466X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:196-244 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Philippe Burger, 2014. "Inflation and Market Uncertainty in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 583-602, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pass-through; inflation; Markov switching; economic fundamentals;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.