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Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (CFM - Capital Fund Management - Capital Fund Management)

  • Stanislao Gualdi

    (CFM - Capital Fund Management - Capital Fund Management)

  • Marco Tarzia

    (LPTMC - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique de la Matière Condensée - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Francesco Zamponi

    (LPTENS - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique de l'ENS [École Normale Supérieure] - FRDPENS - Fédération de recherche du Département de physique de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? The authors investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), they find a rich variety of behaviour at the macro-level. Without any active monetary policy, our ABM economy can be in a high inflation/high output state, or in a low inflation/low output state. Hyper-inflation, deflation and " business cycles " between coexisting states are also found. The authors then introduce a Central Bank with a Taylor rule-based inflation target, and study the resulting aggregate variables. The main result is that too-low inflation targets are in general detrimental to a CB-monitored economy. One symptom is a persistent under-realization of inflation, perhaps similar to the current macroeconomic situation. Higher inflation targets are found to improve both unemployment and negative interest rate episodes. The results are compared with the predictions of the standard DSGE model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model," Post-Print hal-01768441, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01768441
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2018-15
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01768441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dhruv Sharma & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2020. "V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID: Insights from an Agent Based Model," Papers 2006.08469, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    2. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.
    3. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.

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    Keywords

    Agent based models; monetary policy; inflation target; Taylor rule;
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