IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2006.08469.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID: Insights from an Agent Based Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dhruv Sharma
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Stanislao Gualdi
  • Marco Tarzia
  • Francesco Zamponi

Abstract

We discuss the impact of a Covid-19--like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration), our model economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, and even an L-shaped output curve with permanent output loss. This is due to the economy getting trapped in a self-sustained "bad" state. We then discuss two policies that attempt to moderate the impact of the shock: giving easy credit to firms, and the so-called helicopter money, i.e. injecting new money into the households savings. We find that both policies are effective if strong enough. We highlight the potential danger of terminating these policies too early, although inflation is substantially increased by lax access to credit. Finally, we consider the impact of a second lockdown. While we only discuss a limited number of scenarios, our model is flexible and versatile enough to accommodate a wide variety of situations, thus serving as a useful exploratory tool for a qualitative, scenario-based understanding of post-Covid recovery. The corresponding code is available on-line.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhruv Sharma & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2020. "V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID: Insights from an Agent Based Model," Papers 2006.08469, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.08469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.08469
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edoardo Gaffeo & Domenico Delli Gatti & Saul Desiderio & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "Adaptive Microfoundations for Emergent Macroeconomics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 441-463.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    3. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2020. "Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy," Economics Working Papers 1713, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2017. "Optimal Inflation Target: Insights from an Agent-Based Model," Papers 1709.05117, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    6. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    7. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    8. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    9. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model," Post-Print hal-01768441, HAL.
    10. Buiter, Willem H., 2014. "The simple analytics of helicopter money: Why it works - always," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-51.
    11. Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2017. "Monetary policy and dark corners in a stylized agent-based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 507-537, October.
    12. Sony Kapoor & Willem Buiter, 2020. "To fight the COVID pandemic, policymakers must move fast and break taboos," Vox eBook Chapters, in: AgneÌ€s BeÌ nassy-QueÌ reÌ & Beatrice Weder di Mauro (ed.), Europe in the Time of Covid-19, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 250-254, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 0. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    14. Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: Insights from an agent-based model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-27.
    15. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Basurto & Herbert Dawid & Philipp Harting & Jasper Hepp & Dirk Kohlweyer, 2023. "How to design virus containment policies? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 311-370, April.
    2. Simmons, Richard & Dini, Paolo & Culkin, Nigel & Littera, Giuseppe, 2021. "Crisis and the role of money in the real and financial economies: an innovative approach to monetary stimulus," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110904, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Karl Naumann-Woleske & Max Sina Knicker & Michael Benzaquen & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2021. "Exploration of the Parameter Space in Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models," Papers 2111.08654, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    4. Richard Simmons & Paolo Dini & Nigel Culkin & Giuseppe Littera, 2021. "Crisis and the Role of Money in the Real and Financial Economies—An Innovative Approach to Monetary Stimulus," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Olivier Damette & David W. Shanafelt, 2021. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy: Coupling macroeconomics and epidemiology in a financial DSGE-SIR framework," Working Papers of BETA 2021-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Jacques Bughin & Sybille Berjoan & Francis Hinterman & Yuhui Xiong, 2021. "Is this Time Different? Corporate Resilience in the Age of Covid-19," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Jean Philippe Bouchaud & Matteo Marsili & Jean-Pierre Nadal, 2023. "Application of spin glass ideas in social sciences, economics and finance," Post-Print hal-04145594, HAL.
    8. Branimir Jovanović & Michael Landesmann & Oliver Reiter & Bernhard Schütz, 2023. "Structural Change, Income Distribution and Unemployment Related to COVID-19: An Agent-based Model," wiiw Working Papers 223, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    9. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.
    10. Mellacher, Patrick, 2020. "COVID-Town: An Integrated Economic-Epidemiological Agent-Based Model," MPRA Paper 103661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Khaki, Audil & Prasad, Mason & Al-Mohamad, Somar & Bakry, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Matteo Marsili & Jean-Pierre Nadal, 2023. "Application of spin glass ideas in social sciences, economics and finance," Papers 2306.16165, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Goodhart, Charles & Masciandaro, Donato & Ugolini, Stefano, 2021. "Pandemic Recession, Helicopter Money and Central Banking: Venice, 1630," CEPR Discussion Papers 15715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Anna Spoz & Ilona Skibinska-Fabrowska & Grzegorz Kotlinski & Helena Zukowska, 2021. "The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Financial Performance of Public Companies in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 955-976.
    4. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Donato Masciandaro, 2020. "Covid-19 Helicopter Money, Monetary Policy And Central Bank Independence: Economics And Politics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20137, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    7. Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, Joao B. & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Thomas Gries & Wim Naudé, 2021. "Extreme Events, Entrepreneurial Start-Ups, and Innovation: Theoretical Conjectures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 329-353, October.
    9. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Michael J. Mina & James H. Stock, 2020. "Reopening Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 27244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    12. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Recovery from COVID-19: Decentralization, Democratization, Demand, Distribution, and Demography," IZA Discussion Papers 13436, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Dhruv Sharma & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2021. "V–, U–, L– or W–shaped economic recovery after Covid-19: Insights from an Agent Based Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, March.
    14. Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    15. Donato Masciandaro, 2020. "Ecb Helicopter Money: Economic And Political Economy Arithmetics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20138, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2022. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-RBC Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 114673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Christopher Cotton & Bahman Kashi & Huw Lloyd‐Ellis & Frederic Tremblay & Brett Crowley, 2022. "Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID‐19 policy responses on Canada's provinces in (almost) real time," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 406-445, February.
    18. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2023. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-Macro Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 118422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Lie, Denny, 2021. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 532-552.
    20. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl, 2020. "ABC: An Agent Based Exploration of the Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8763, CESifo.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.08469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.