IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jeicoo/v20y2025i1d10.1007_s11403-024-00413-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Post-COVID inflation and the monetary policy dilemma: an agent-based scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Max Sina Knicker

    (Ecole Polytechnique
    Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Karl Naumann-Woleske

    (Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (Ecole Polytechnique
    Capital Fund Management
    Académie des Sciences, Quai de Conti)

  • Francesco Zamponi

    (Sapienza Università di Roma
    Université PSL, CNRS, Sorbonne, Université, Université de Paris)

Abstract

The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach. We study the 2020–2023 period within the well-studied Mark-0 Agent-Based Model, in which economic agents act and react according to plausible behavioural rules. We include a mechanism through which trust of economic agents in the Central Bank can de-anchor. We investigate the influence of regulatory policies on inflationary dynamics resulting from three exogenous shocks, calibrated on those that followed the COVID-19 pandemic: a production/consumption shock due to COVID-related lockdowns, a supply chain shock, and an energy price shock exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By exploring the impact of these shocks under different assumptions about monetary policy efficacy and transmission channels, we review various explanations for the resurgence of inflation in the USA, including demand-pull, cost-push, and profit-driven factors. Our main results are fourfold: (i) without appropriate fiscal policy, the shocked economy can take years to recover, or even tip over into a deep recession; (ii) the success of monetary policy in curbing inflation is primarily due to expectation anchoring, rather than to the direct economic impact of interest rate hikes; (iii) however, perhaps paradoxically, strong inflation anchoring is detrimental to consumption and unemployment, leading to a narrow window of “optimal” policy responses due to the trade-off between inflation and unemployment; (iv) the two most sensitive model parameters are those describing wage and price indexation. The results of our study have implications for Central Bank decision-making, and offer an easy-to-use tool that may help anticipate the consequences of different monetary and fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Francesco Zamponi, 2025. "Post-COVID inflation and the monetary policy dilemma: an agent-based scenario analysis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 20(1), pages 141-195, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:20:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11403-024-00413-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11403-024-00413-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11403-024-00413-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11403-024-00413-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucy Chennells, 1997. "The windfall tax," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 279-291, August.
    2. Ricardo Reis & Silvana Tenreyro, 2022. "Helicopter Money: What Is It and What Does It Do?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 313-335, August.
    3. Dessertaine, Théo & Moran, José & Benzaquen, Michael & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2022. "Out-of-equilibrium dynamics and excess volatility in firm networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Alan S. Blinder, 1982. "The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 261-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Théo Dessertaine & José Morán & Michael Benzaquen & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2022. "Out-of-equilibrium dynamics and excess volatility in firm networks," Post-Print hal-03049876, HAL.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1a9acst1l284eo8kvqrqrnlbl1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Losing the Inflation Anchors," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 307-379.
    8. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2022. "Why do we think that inflation expectations matter for inflation? (And should we?)," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 25-45, January.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2017. "Micro and macro policies in the Keynes+Schumpeter evolutionary models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 63-90, January.
    10. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    11. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    12. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2013. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 119-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    15. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
    16. Edoardo Gaffeo & Domenico Delli Gatti & Saul Desiderio & Mauro Gallegati, 2008. "Adaptive Microfoundations for Emergent Macroeconomics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 441-463.
    17. Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2017. "Monetary policy and dark corners in a stylized agent-based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 507-537, October.
    18. Holland, A Steven, 1988. "The Changing Responsiveness of Wages to Price-Level Shocks: Explicit and Implicit Indexation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 265-279, April.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    20. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    21. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Balatti, Mirco & Mancini, Michele & Metelli, Luca, 2022. "Supply chain disruptions and the effects on the global economy," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1a9acst1l284eo8kvqrqrnlbl1 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: Insights from an agent-based model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-27.
    24. Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2017. "Monetary policy and dark corners in a stylized agent-based model," Post-Print hal-03985776, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2024. "Navigating through Economic Complexity: Phase Diagrams & Parameter Sloppiness," Papers 2412.11259, arXiv.org.
    2. Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Francesco Zamponi, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation & the Monetary Policy Dilemma: An Agent-Based Scenario Analysis," Papers 2306.01284, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    3. Dhruv Sharma & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2020. "V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID: Insights from an Agent Based Model," Papers 2006.08469, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Douglas Silveira & Ricardo B. L. M. Oscar, 2024. "Inflation Targeting Regimes in Emerging Market Economies: To Invest or Not to Invest?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2097-2129, October.
    5. Orlando Gomes, 2021. "Hand-to-mouth consumers, rule-of-thumb savers, and optimal control," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(2), pages 229-263, April.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/401t6job098n79ch91o9giov9d is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dosi, Giovanni & Lamperti, Francesco & Mazzucato, Mariana & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Mission-oriented policies and the “Entrepreneurial State” at work: An agent-based exploration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Leonardo Ciambezi & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2023. "Accounting for the Multiple Sources of Inflation: an Agent-Based Model Investigation," GREDEG Working Papers 2023-14, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France, revised Jun 2024.
    9. Kshama Dwarakanath & Jialin Dong & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2024. "Tax Credits and Household Behavior: The Roles of Myopic Decision-Making and Liquidity in a Simulated Economy," Papers 2408.10391, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/401t6job098n79ch91o9giov9d is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dessertaine, Théo & Moran, José & Benzaquen, Michael & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2022. "Out-of-equilibrium dynamics and excess volatility in firm networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    13. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2024. "The Self-Organized Criticality Paradigm in Economics & Finance," Papers 2407.10284, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    14. Severin Reissl & Luca E. Fierro & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "The DSK-SFC stock-flow consistent agent-based integrated assessment model," LEM Papers Series 2024/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Federico Guglielmo Morelli & Michael Benzaquen & Marco Tarzia & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2020. "Confidence collapse in a multihousehold, self-reflexive DSGE model," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(17), pages 9244-9249, April.
    16. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    18. Karl Naumann-Woleske & Max Sina Knicker & Michael Benzaquen & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2022. "Exploration of the Parameter Space in Macroeconomic Models," Post-Print hal-03797418, HAL.
    19. Silvano Cincotti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio, 2022. "Why do we need agent-based macroeconomics?," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    20. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 257-281.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:20:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11403-024-00413-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.