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Quantifying the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Policy Responses on Canada's Provinces in (Almost) Real Time

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Cotton

    (Queen's University)

  • Bahman Kashi

    (Limestone Analytics)

  • Huw Lloyd-Ellis

    (Queen's University)

  • Frederic Tremblay

Abstract

We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lock-down and re-opening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time-lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally-adjusted, input-output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios for the impacts of lock-down and reopening which allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in the composition of demand. Taking account of the observed variation in re-opening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in term of lost hours of employment and production.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Cotton & Bahman Kashi & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Frederic Tremblay, 2020. "Quantifying the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Policy Responses on Canada's Provinces in (Almost) Real Time," Working Paper 1441, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences

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    Cited by:

    1. Yahong Zhang, 2022. "Unemployment Benefits and Wage Subsidies -- Effects of Labour Market Policies during a Pandemic," Working Papers 2203, University of Windsor, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; pandemic; lock-down; policy response; policy analysis; scenario analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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