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Learning The Optimal Buffer-Stock Consumption Rule Of Carroll

Listed author(s):
  • Yıldızoğlu, Murat
  • Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre
  • Salle, Isabelle
  • Zumpe, Martin

This article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen et Carroll (2001) about the ability of consumer to learn the optimal buffer-stock based consumption rule. To this aim, we develop an agent based model where alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the consumption behaviour that they yield. We show that neither purely adaptive learning, nor social learning based on imitation can ensure satisfactory consumption behaviours. By contrast, if the agents can form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in terms of its regularity, and its ability to improve performance (which is as a clear manifestation of learning). Our results indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and realistic economic behaviour, which, in some cases, can even converge to the optimal solution. This framework may therefore be used to develop macroeconomic models with adaptive dynamics.
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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2014)
Issue (Month): 04 (June)
Pages: 727-752

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:04:p:727-752_00
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  1. Yildizoglu, Murat, 2002. "Competing R&D Strategies in an Evolutionary Industry Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 51-65, February.
  2. Vallée, Thomas & YIldIzoglu, Murat, 2009. "Convergence in the finite Cournot oligopoly with social and individual learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 670-690, November.
  3. Murat Yildizoglu, 2001. "Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks," Working Papers 2001-2, Equipe Industries Innovation Institutions, Université Bordeaux IV, France.
  4. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  5. Vriend, Nicolaas J., 2000. "An illustration of the essential difference between individual and social learning, and its consequences for computational analyses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
  6. Happe, Kathrin, 2005. "Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis by Experimental Design and Metamodelling: An Application to Modelling Regional Structural Change," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24464, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Oeffner, Marc, 2008. "Agent–Based Keynesian Macroeconomics - An Evolutionary Model Embedded in an Agent–Based Computer Simulation," MPRA Paper 18199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
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