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Learning The Optimal Buffer-Stock Consumption Rule Of Carroll

Author

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  • Yıldızoğlu, Murat
  • Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre
  • Salle, Isabelle
  • Zumpe, Martin

Abstract

This article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen and Carroll [Macroeconomic Dynamics 5 (2001), 255–271] about the ability of consumers to learn the optimal buffer-stock-based consumption rule. To this end, we develop an agent-based model in which alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the consumption behavior that they yield. We show that neither purely adaptive learning nor social learning based on imitation can ensure satisfactory consumption behavior. In contrast, if the agents can form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behavior becomes much more interesting in terms of its regularity and its ability to improve performance (which is a clear manifestation of learning). Our results indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and realistic economic behavior, which, in some cases, can even converge to the optimal solution. This framework may therefore be used to develop macroeconomic models with adaptive dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre & Salle, Isabelle & Zumpe, Martin, 2014. "Learning The Optimal Buffer-Stock Consumption Rule Of Carroll," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 727-752, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:04:p:727-752_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Isabelle Salle & Murat Yıldızoğlu, 2014. "Efficient Sampling and Meta-Modeling for Computational Economic Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 507-536, December.
    2. Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    3. Salle, Isabelle & Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre, 2013. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-128.
    4. Arifovic, Jasmina & Yıldızoğlu, Murat, 2019. "Learning the Ramsey outcome in a Kydland & Prescott economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 191-208.
    5. Isabelle Salle & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Murat Yıldızoğlu, 2019. "How transparent about its inflation target should a central bank be?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 391-427, March.
    6. Salle, Isabelle & Seppecher, Pascal, 2016. "Social Learning About Consumption," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1795-1825, October.
    7. Szymon Chudziak, 2025. "Studying economic complexity with agent-based models: advances, challenges and future perspectives," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 20(2), pages 413-449, April.
    8. Meissner, Thomas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2017. "Learning Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 273-288.
    9. Salle, Isabelle L., 2015. "Modeling expectations in agent-based models — An application to central bank's communication and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-141.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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