IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genstf/201401010800005291.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Computational modeling of an economy using elements of artificial intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Sinitskaya, Ekaterina

Abstract

The goal of this dissertation was to develop tools for analyzing economic performance while agents were constrained to be constructively rational. To achieve this goal, firstly, tools for introducing forward-looking agents into agent-based frameworks were developed. These agents were shown to be a feasible alternative to the assumption of rational expectations, albeit with some limitations, as could be expected from any computational method. Several testing frameworks were also developed. Smaller ones were used to explore economic effects of decision procedures used by agents on macro- and micro-levels. A more advanced framework was formulated to facilitate the analysis of the interactions between institutional structures and macroeconomic policies. These frameworks were shown to be scalable and useful tools for the analysis of both micro-level decisions of agents and macroeconomic policies of central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinitskaya, Ekaterina, 2014. "Computational modeling of an economy using elements of artificial intelligence," ISU General Staff Papers 201401010800005291, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:201401010800005291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/ebb6e250-945f-4229-b2ba-6889bf21b181/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    2. Jeffrey M. Alden & Robert L. Smith, 1992. "Rolling Horizon Procedures in Nonhomogeneous Markov Decision Processes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3-supplem), pages 183-194, June.
    3. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    4. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    5. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 229-264.
    6. James Nicolaisen & Valentin Petrov & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2000. "Market Power and Efficiency in a Computational Electricity Market with Discriminatory Double-Auction Pricing," Computational Economics 0004005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    8. John D. Hey & Julia A. Knoll, 2018. "Strategies in dynamic decision making – An experimental investigation of the rationality of decision behaviour," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Experiments in Economics Decision Making and Markets, chapter 9, pages 223-233, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    10. , & ,, 2011. "Intertemporal substitution and recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(3), September.
    11. Smith,Vernon L., 2009. "Rationality in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521133388, September.
    12. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November.
    13. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 460-501, June.
    14. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    15. Lex Borghans & Bart H. H. Golsteyn & James J. Heckman & Huub Meijers, 2009. "Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Ambiguity Aversion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 649-658, 04-05.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    17. Roger E.A. Farmer (ed.), 2008. "Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13236.
    18. Chen, Shu-Heng, 2012. "Varieties of agents in agent-based computational economics: A historical and an interdisciplinary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25.
    19. Shefrin, Hersh M & Thaler, Richard H, 1988. "The Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 609-643, October.
    20. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    22. Enrica Carbone & John D. Hey, 2004. "The effect of unemployment on consumption: an experimental analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 660-683, July.
    23. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    24. Antoine Mandel & Carlo Jaeger & Steffen Fürst & Wiebke Lass & Daniel Lincke & Frank Meissner & Federico Pablo-Marti & Sarah Wolf, 2010. "Agent-based dynamics in disaggregated growth models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00542442, HAL.
    25. Carlos de Resende & Ali Dib & René Lalonde & Nikita Perevalov, 2016. "Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2267-2291, October.
    26. Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
    27. Krishna Rao & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti & Kieran Walsh, 2010. "Policy analysis using DSGE models: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Oct), pages 23-43.
    28. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
    29. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    30. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
    31. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    32. Anna Maffioletti & Ulrich Schmidt & Carsten Schröder, 2009. "The effect of elicitation methods on ambiguity aversion: an experimental investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 638-643.
    33. Howitt, Peter, 2012. "What have central bankers learned from modern macroeconomic theory?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 11-22.
    34. Peter Howitt, 2008. "Macroeconomics with Intelligent Autonomous Agents," Chapters, in: Roger E.A. Farmer (ed.), Macroeconomics in the Small and the Large, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    35. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    36. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. . . : A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 5-53, January.
    37. Ho, Joanna L Y & Keller, L Robin & Keltyka, Pamela, 2002. "Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 47-74, January.
    38. Lex Borghans & Bart H.H. Golsteyn & James J. Heckman & Huub Meijers, 2009. "Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Ambiguity," Working Papers 200903, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    39. Oeffner, Marc, 2008. "Agent–Based Keynesian Macroeconomics - An Evolutionary Model Embedded in an Agent–Based Computer Simulation," MPRA Paper 18199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2015. "Macroeconomies as constructively rational games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 152-182.
    2. Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2017. "Banks, market organization, and macroeconomic performance: An agent-based computational analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 143-180.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 67-116.
    6. Váry, Miklós, 2015. "Piaci alkalmazkodás ragadós árak mellett - Calvo-típusú ármerevség egy ágensalapú modellben [Market adjustment under sticky prices: the price rigidity of a Calvo type in an agent-based model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 48-77.
    7. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    11. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    12. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 79-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 257-281.
    15. Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Umberto Gostoli, 2015. "An agent-based “proof of principle” for Walrasian macroeconomic theory," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 150-183, June.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5bli88krr28f68nvhfe1qtsl9l is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Erlingsson, Einar Jon & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano & Stefansson, Hlynur & Sturlusson, Jon Thor & Raberto, Marco, 2014. "Housing market bubbles and business cycles in an agent-based credit economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-42.
    18. Herbert Dawid & Philipp Harting & Sander Hoog & Michael Neugart, 2019. "Macroeconomics with heterogeneous agent models: fostering transparency, reproducibility and replication," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 467-538, March.
    19. Beck, Thorsten & Colciago, Andrea & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2014. "The role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-11.
    20. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "Market disequilibrium, monetary policy, and financial markets: insights from new tools," LEM Papers Series 2018/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p6go0e900 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    23. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Li, Boyao, 2017. "The impact of the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio on macroeconomic stability: An agent-based approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    25. Narine Udumyan & Juliette Rouchier & Dominique Ami, 2014. "Integration of Path-Dependency in a Simple Learning Model: The Case of Marine Resources," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 199-231, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:201401010800005291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.