IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Income Distribution, Credit and Fiscal Policies in an Agent-Based Keynesian Model

This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model. The direct ancestor of this work is the "Keynes meeting Schumpeter" formalism presented in Dosi et al. (2010). To that model, we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions. The model combines Keynesian mechanisms of demand generation, a "Schumpeterian" innovation-fueled process of growth and Minskian credit dynamics. The robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one. The model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions, the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution. We find that different income distribution regimes heavily affect macroeconomic performance: more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fluctuations, higher unemployment rates, and higher probability of crises. On the policy side, fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles, reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis. In some circumstances they also affect positively long-term growth. Further, the more income distribution is skewed toward profits, the greater the effects of fiscal policies. About monetary policy, we find a strong non-linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics: in one "regime" with low rates, changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output volatility, unemployment and likelihood of crises.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2012-06.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2012-06.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1206
Contact details of provider: Postal: 69, quai d'Orsay - 75007 PARIS
Phone: 01 44 18 54 00
Fax: 01 45 56 06 15
Web page: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  2. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 3-34, February.
  3. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2010. "Inequality and Macroeconomic Performance," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  4. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Eric J. Bartelsman & Mark Doms, 2000. "Understanding productivity: lessons from longitudinal microdata," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. George A. Akerlof, 2002. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 411-433, June.
  7. Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1993. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 93-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  8. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proano & Willi Semmler, 2009. "Overconsumption, Credit Rationing and Bailout Monetary Policy: A Minskyan Perspective," IMK Working Paper 04-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  9. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 67-116.
  11. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Taylor, Lance & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 871-85, Supp..
  14. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Schumpeter Meeting Keynes: A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2008/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  15. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
  17. Kumhof, Michael & Rancière, Romain, 2011. "Inequality, Leverage and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  19. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August.
  20. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gallegati, Mauro & Ormerod, Paul, 2004. "Scaling invariant distributions of firms’ exit in OECD countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 334(1), pages 267-273.
  21. Mauro Napoletano & Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Wage Formation, Investment Behavior and Growth Regimes: An Agent-Based Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 235-261.
  22. G. Fagiolo & G. Dosi & R. Gabriele, 2004. "Matching, Bargaining, And Wage Setting In An Evolutionary Model Of Labor Market And Output Dynamics," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 157-186.
  23. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  24. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599 Elsevier.
  25. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 365-391, June.
  26. Fabiani, Silvia & Druant, Martine & Hernando, Ignacio & Kwapil, Claudia & Landau, Bettina & Loupias, Claire & Martins, Fernando & Mathä, Thomas Y. & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Stokman, Ad C., 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area: new survey evidence," Working Paper Series 0535, European Central Bank.
  27. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
  28. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics Discussion Papers 2010-4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  30. Bart Verspagen, . "Evolutionary macroeconomics: A synthesis between neo-Schumpeterian and post-Keynesian lines of thought," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  31. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
  32. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Is There a `Credit Channel' for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Quamrul Ashraf & Boris Gershman & Peter Howitt, 2011. "Banks, Market Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Analysis," Center for Development Economics 2011-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  34. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  35. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, 08.
  36. Feldstein, Martin S & Foot, David K, 1971. "The Other Half of Gross Investment: Replacement and Modernization Expenditures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 49-58, February.
  37. Tommaso Ciarli & André Lorentz & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2010. "The Effect Of Consumption And Production Structure On Growth And Distribution. A Micro To Macro Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 180-218, 02.
  38. Mark T. Leary, 2009. "Bank Loan Supply, Lender Choice, and Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1143-1185, 06.
  39. Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2011. "Debt deleveraging and business cycles: An agent-based perspective," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  40. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
  41. Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1996. "The Dynamics and Evolution of Industries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 51-87.
  42. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  43. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
  44. Blake LeBaron & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2008. "Modeling Macroeconomies as Open-Ended Dynamic Systems of Interacting Agents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 246-50, May.
  45. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
  46. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  47. Alessandra Del Boca & Marzio Galeotti & Charles P. Himmelberg & Paola Rota, 2008. "Investment and Time to Plan and Build: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in A Panel of Italian Firms," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(4), pages 864-889, 06.
  48. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
  49. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
  50. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Debt, Aggregate Demand, and the Business Cycle: An Analysis in the Spirit of Kaldor and Minsky," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(3), pages 371-390, April.
  51. repec:rie:review:v:11:y:2006:i:1:n:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. Pier Saviotti & Andreas Pyka, 2008. "Product variety, competition and economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 323-347, August.
  53. Napoletano Mauro & Roventini Andrea & Sapio Sandro, 2006. "Are Business Cycles All Alike? A Bandpass Filter Analysis of the Italian and US Cycles," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 87-118.
  54. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
  55. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Peydró, José-Luis & Maddaloni, Angela, 2010. "Trusting the bankers: a new look at the credit channel of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1228, European Central Bank.
  56. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi, 2010. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis:a Stochastic Microfoundation Framework," Research Paper Series 273, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  57. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  58. Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2004. "Zipf law in firms bankruptcy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 219-230.
  59. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 13754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. repec:thk:rnotes:6 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2001. "The macrodynamics of debt deflation," Chapters, in: Financial Fragility and Investment in the Capitalist Economy, chapter 7 Edward Elgar.
  62. H. Dawid & S. Gemkow & P. Harting & K. Kabus & K. Wersching & M. Neugart, 2008. "Skills, Innovation, and Growth: An Agent-Based Policy Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(2+3), pages 251-275, June.
  63. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
  65. Russo, Alberto & Catalano, Michele & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Napoletano, Mauro, 2007. "Industrial dynamics, fiscal policy and R&D: Evidence from a computational experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(3-4), pages 426-447.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francesco Saraceno)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.