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Strategies in dynamic decision making - An experimental investigation of the rationality of decision behaviour

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  • Hey, John D.
  • Knoll, Julia A.

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the question of how people tackle dynamic decision problems. It is on the interface between economics and psychology. Economic theory has a well-defined theory of how people should tackle such problems, but experimental evidence suggests that these are not empirically valid, and particularly that people find dynamic decision problems complex and cognitively demanding. Psychologists have long been aware of such issues and have developed a suite of theories to explain behaviour in such contexts, but these have been largely developed in a static context. This paper attempts to build a bridge between the two disciplines by exploring decision processes in a dynamic problem for which economic theory provides clear predictions. To aid us in this quest we use an experimental design which enables us to infer the decision rules that people are using. We identify a number of distinct decision heuristics, which could usefully be embodied into economic models of dynamic decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Hey, John D. & Knoll, Julia A., 2011. "Strategies in dynamic decision making - An experimental investigation of the rationality of decision behaviour," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 399-409, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:32:y:2011:i:3:p:399-409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muller, Wieland, 2001. "Strategies, heuristics, and the relevance of risk-aversion in a dynamic decision problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 493-522, August.
    2. Johnson, Eric J. & Camerer, Colin & Sen, Sankar & Rymon, Talia, 2002. "Detecting Failures of Backward Induction: Monitoring Information Search in Sequential Bargaining," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 16-47, May.
    3. Bettman, James R. & Johnson, Eric J. & Payne, John W., 1990. "A componential analysis of cognitive effort in choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 111-139, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasufumi Gemma, 2016. "Money Illusion Matters for Consumption-Saving Decision-Making: An Experimental Investigation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2014. "An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Enrica Carbone & Gerardo Infante, 2014. "Comparing behavior under risk and under ambiguity in a lifecycle experiment," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(3), pages 313-322, October.
    4. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina, 2014. "Computational modeling of an economy using elements of artificial intelligence," ISU General Staff Papers 201401010800005291, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:eee:jeborg:v:145:y:2018:i:c:p:465-473 is not listed on IDEAS

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