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Resource prices and planning horizons

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  • Spiro, Daniel

Abstract

This paper shows that a seemingly simple assumption – that agents use a rolling planning horizon – can reconcile the puzzling long run price dynamics of exhaustible resources such as oil, gas and metals. A rolling horizon has the effect of removing the scarcity consideration of resource owners when stocks are large. Hence, extraction will be non-decreasing and resource prices non-increasing for a long period of time and there will be no connection between the price growth and the interest rate – in line with the trends of a majority of exhaustible resources in the last century. A calibration of the model to the oil market yields a price which closely fits the gradually falling real oil price after WWII and the sharply increasing price after 1998. This suggests that, while long run scarcity was not an important parameter on the oil market in the 20th century, it has been important in shaping the oil price from around 1998 and onwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Spiro, Daniel, 2014. "Resource prices and planning horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 159-175.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:48:y:2014:i:c:p:159-175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.08.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    2. van der Meijden, Gerard & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2015. "International capital markets, oil producers and the Green Paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 275-297.
    3. Jochen Güntner, 2017. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Economics working papers 2017-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Daniel Huppmann & Franziska Holz, 2015. "What about the OPEC Cartel?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 58, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    6. Roel van Veldhuizen & Joep Sonnemans, 2011. "Nonrenewable Resources, Strategic Behavior and the Hotelling Rule: An Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Spiro, Daniel, 2014. "Resource prices and planning horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 159-175.
    8. Justin Leroux & Daniel Spiro, 2017. "Leading the Unwilling: Unilateral Strategies to Prevent Arctic Oil Exploration," CESifo Working Paper Series 6629, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Lecuyer, Oskar & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2014. "Optimal transition from coal to gas and renewable power under capacity constraints and adjustment costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6985, The World Bank.
    10. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1893 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 188-199.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource extraction; Oil price; Rolling horizons; Decision-making under uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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