IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/oxcrwp/099.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Putting OPEC out of business

Author

Listed:
  • Niko Jaakkola

Abstract

I develop a differential game between an oil cartel, and an importer investing in R&D to reduce the cost of a substitute to oil. The equilibrium dynamics mirror the recent oil price collapse: prices first increase, but eventually fall as the cartel is forced to deter unconventional (shale) oil. Interpreting the substitute as clean energy, I assess future climate policy. Credible carbon taxes are below the Pigovian level, implying the importer certainly cannot capture resource rents. Without a tax instrument, the importer curtails long-run pollution using a costly R&D programme. Normatively, carbon taxes are necessary to tackle climate change efficiently.

Suggested Citation

  • Niko Jaakkola, 2012. "Putting OPEC out of business," OxCarre Working Papers 099, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2082f28d-e664-4afa-8705-088282821f50
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William D. Nordhaus, 1973. "The Allocation of Energy Resources," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 529-576.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    3. van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2019. "Limit pricing, climate policies, and imperfect substitution," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2011. "Strategic resource dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 699-727, March.
    5. List, John A. & Mason, Charles F., 2001. "Optimal Institutional Arrangements for Transboundary Pollutants in a Second-Best World: Evidence from a Differential Game with Asymmetric Players," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 277-296, November.
    6. Christopher Harris & John Vickers, 1995. "Innovation and Natural Resources: A Dynamic Game with Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(3), pages 418-430, Autumn.
    7. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
    8. Dasgupta, Partha & Gilbert, Richard & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1983. "Strategic Considerations in Invention and Innovation: The Case of Natural Resources," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1439-1448, September.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
    10. Rubio, Santiago J. & Escriche, Luisa, 2001. "Strategic pigouvian taxation, stock externalities and polluting non-renewable resources," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 297-313, February.
    11. Guglielmo Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2010. "Using Chebyshev Polynomials to Approximate Partial Differential Equations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 235-244, March.
    12. Wirl, Franz & Dockner, Engelbert, 1995. "Leviathan governments and carbon taxes: Costs and potential benefits," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1215-1236, June.
    13. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Leach, Andrew & Moreaux, Michel, 2012. "Cycles in nonrenewable resource prices with pollution and learning-by-doing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1448-1461.
    14. Kenji Fujiwara & Ngo Long, 2011. "Welfare Implications of Leadership in a Resource Market under Bilateral Monopoly," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 479-497, December.
    15. Nancy Gallini & Tracy Lewis & Roger Ware, 1983. "Strategic Timing and Pricing of a Substitute in a Cartelized Resource Market," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(3), pages 429-446, August.
    16. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, April.
    17. Dangl, Thomas & Wirl, Franz, 2004. "Investment under uncertainty: calculating the value function when the Bellman equation cannot be solved analytically," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1437-1460, April.
    18. Spiro, Daniel, 2014. "Resource prices and planning horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 159-175.
    19. Balikcioglu, Metin & Fackler, Paul L. & Pindyck, Robert S., 2011. "Solving optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 761-768, September.
    20. Newbery, David M G, 1981. "Oil Prices, Cartels, and the Problem of Dynamic Inconsistency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 617-646, September.
    21. Karp, Larry, 1984. "Optimality and consistency in a differential game with non-renewable resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 73-97, October.
    22. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    23. Jaakkola, Niko, 2019. "Carbon taxation, OPEC and the end of oil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 101-117.
    24. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    25. Van Long, Ngo, 2012. "Applications of Dynamic Games to Global and Transboundary Environmental Issues: A Review of the Literature," Strategic Behavior and the Environment, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 1-59, January.
    26. Franz Wirl, 1991. "(Monopolistic) resource extraction and limit pricing: The market penetration of competitively produced synfuels," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 157-178, June.
    27. Reyer Gerlagh, 2011. "Too Much Oil," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(1), pages 79-102, March.
    28. David Popp, 2002. "Induced Innovation and Energy Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 160-180, March.
    29. Liski, Matti & Tahvonen, Olli, 2004. "Can carbon tax eat OPEC's rents?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-12, January.
    30. Benchekroun, Hassan & Ray Chaudhuri, Amrita, 2014. "Transboundary pollution and clean technologies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 601-619.
    31. Michael Hoel, 1984. "Extraction of a Resource with a Substitute for Some of Its Uses," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 593-602, August.
    32. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    33. Groot, Fons & Withagen, Cees & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2003. "Strong time-consistency in the cartel-versus-fringe model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 287-306, November.
    34. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    35. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2003. "Optimal transition to backstop substitutes for nonrenewable resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 551-572, February.
    36. Ngo Long, 2011. "Dynamic Games in the Economics of Natural Resources: A Survey," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 115-148, March.
    37. Salo, Seppo & Tahvonen, Olli, 2001. "Oligopoly equilibria in nonrenewable resource markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 671-702, May.
    38. Schoots, K. & Kramer, G.J. & van der Zwaan, B.C.C., 2010. "Technology learning for fuel cells: An assessment of past and potential cost reductions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2887-2897, June.
    39. Dockner,Engelbert J. & Jorgensen,Steffen & Long,Ngo Van & Sorger,Gerhard, 2000. "Differential Games in Economics and Management Science," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521637329, September.
    40. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    41. Hoel, Michael, 1978. "Resource extraction, substitute production, and monopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, October.
    42. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    43. Behar, Alberto & Ritz, Robert A., 2017. "OPEC vs US shale: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-198.
    44. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Is there really a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 342-363.
    45. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
    46. Wirl Franz, 1994. "Pigouvian Taxation of Energy for Flow and Stock Externalities and Strategic, Noncompetitive Energy Pricing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18, January.
    47. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 2001. "Markov Perfect Equilibrium: I. Observable Actions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 191-219, October.
    48. Scott Barrett, 2006. "Climate Treaties and "Breakthrough" Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 22-25, May.
    49. Michielsen, Thomas O., 2014. "Strategic resource extraction and substitute development," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 455-468.
    50. Olsen, Trond E., 1993. "Perfect equilibrium timing of a backstop technology Limit pricing induced by trigger zones," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 123-151.
    51. repec:bla:econom:v:69:y:2002:i:274:p:207-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    2. Naef, Alain, 2024. "The impossible love of fossil fuel companies for carbon taxes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Frederick Ploeg & Aart Zeeuw, 2016. "Non-cooperative and Cooperative Responses to Climate Catastrophes in the Global Economy: A North–South Perspective," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 519-540, November.
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Second-best carbon taxation in the global economy: The Green Paradox and carbon leakage revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 85-105.
    5. Jaakkola, Niko, 2019. "Carbon taxation, OPEC and the end of oil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 101-117.
    6. Jaakkola, Niko & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 42-66.
    7. Saraly Andrade de Sa & Julien Daubanes, 2014. "Limit-Pricing and the (Un)Effectiveness of the Carbon Tax," Working Papers 2014.07, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    8. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2020. "Race to burn the last ton of carbon and the risk of stranded assets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Malik Curuk & Suphi Sen, 2023. "Climate Policy and Resource Extraction with Variable Markups and Imperfect Substitutes," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1091-1120.
    10. van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2019. "Limit pricing, climate policies, and imperfect substitution," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Frederick van der Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2015. "Global Warming and the Green Paradox: A Review of Adverse Effects of Climate Policies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 285-303.
    12. Michielsen, Thomas O., 2014. "Strategic resource extraction and substitute development," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 455-468.
    13. van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2020. "Monopoly, unilateral climate policies and limit pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Thomas St rdal Gundersen & Even Soltvedt Hvinden, 2021. "OPEC's crude game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets," Working Papers No 01/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    15. Jorge Antunes & Abdollah Hadi-Vencheh & Ali Jamshidi & Yong Tan & Peter Wanke, 2024. "Efficiency of Low-Carbon Finance: Its Interrelationships with Industry and Macroeconomic Environment," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15328-15364, September.
    16. Hart, Rob & Gars, Johan, 2022. "The black paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    17. Sun, Qingqing & Chen, Hong & Long, Ruyin & Yang, Jiahui, 2023. "Who will pay for the “bicycle cemetery”? Evolutionary game analysis of recycling abandoned shared bicycles under dynamic reward and punishment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(2), pages 917-929.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    2. Ngo Long, 2011. "Dynamic Games in the Economics of Natural Resources: A Survey," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 115-148, March.
    3. Hart, Rob & Gars, Johan, 2022. "The black paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Wirl, Franz, 2014. "Taxes versus permits as incentive for the intertemporal supply of a clean technology by a monopoly," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 248-269.
    5. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Is there really a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 342-363.
    6. Christian Beermann, 2015. "Climate Policy and the Intertemporal Supply of Fossil Resources," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62.
    7. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    8. Gerard Meijden & Cees Withagen & Hassan Benchekroun, 2022. "An Oligopoly-Fringe Model with HARA Preferences," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 954-976, September.
    9. Michielsen, Thomas O., 2014. "Strategic resource extraction and substitute development," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 455-468.
    10. Malik Curuk & Suphi Sen, 2023. "Climate Policy and Resource Extraction with Variable Markups and Imperfect Substitutes," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1091-1120.
    11. van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2019. "Limit pricing, climate policies, and imperfect substitution," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Strand, Jon, 2013. "Strategic climate policy with offsets and incomplete abatement: Carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 202-218.
    13. Benchekroun, Hassan & Breton, Michèle & Chaudhuri, Amrita Ray, 2019. "Mergers in nonrenewable resource oligopolies and environmental policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 35-52.
    14. Quentin Grafton, R. & Kompas, Tom & Van Long, Ngo, 2012. "Substitution between biofuels and fossil fuels: Is there a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 328-341.
    15. Benchekroun, Hassan & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "On price taking behavior in a nonrenewable resource cartel–fringe game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 355-374.
    16. Michael Caputo & Chen Ling, 2015. "Intrinsic Comparative Dynamics of Locally Differentiable Feedback Stackelberg Equilibria," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
    17. van der Meijden, Gerard & Ryszka, Karolina & Withagen, Cees, 2018. "Double limit pricing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 153-167.
    18. Benchekroun, Hassan & van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2019. "An oligopoly-fringe non-renewable resource game in the presence of a renewable substitute," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-20.
    19. Benchekroun, Hassan & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "On price taking behavior in a nonrenewable resource cartel–fringe game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 355-374.
    20. Wie, Jiegen & Wennlock, Magnus & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Sterner, Thomas, 2011. "The Fossil Endgame: Strategic Oil Price Discrimination and Carbon Taxation," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-26, Resources for the Future.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exhaustible resources; OPEC; oil prices; alternative fuels; limit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Melis Boya (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oxcaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.