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Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium

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  • Johannes Pfeiffer

Abstract

Diese Dissertation wurde von Johannes Pfeiffer während seiner Zeit am ifo Institut verfasst. Sie wurde im Dezember 2016 von der Universität Regensburg als Dissertation angenommen. Die Arbeit untersucht unbeabsichtigte intertemporale Reaktionen des fossilen Ressourcenangebots auf klimapolitische Maßnahmen, die oft unter dem Begriff des Grünen Paradoxons gefasst werden. Sie verdeutlicht, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen Ressourcen- und Kapitalmarkt in einem Modell im allgemeinen Gleichgewicht die angebotsseitige Wirkung von klimapolitischen Maßnahmen grundlegend verändern kann. Insbesondere die folgenden Beobachtungen werden in diesem Zusammenhang näher betrachtet: 1. Nach verbreiteter Einschätzung werden fossile Ressourcen, gerade Erdöl und Erdgas, nicht auf vollkommenen Wettbewerbsmärkten gehandelt. 2. Ressourcenreiche Länder investieren am Kapitalmarkt und halten bereits beträchtliche Anlagevermögen, etwa in sogenannten Sovereign Wealth Funds. 3. „Grüne" Technologien wie erneuerbare Energien ersetzten fossile Ressourcen in der Energieerzeugung überwiegend über Einsatz von Kapital, während fossile Ressourcen und Kapital allgemein in der Produktion immer noch als stark komplementär gelten. Die Arbeit stellt dar, dass in Abhängigkeit davon, ob und inwieweit die marktübergreifenden Effekte des Ressourcenangebots im allgemeinen Gleichgewicht internalisiert werden, zusätzliche Motive das Verhalten eines Monopolisten maßgeblich verändern können. Insbesondere ergibt sich aus dem Einfluss des Ressourcenangebots auf die Kapitalrendite im Zusammenspiel mit den Kapitalanlagen des Ressourcenanbieters das sogenannte Asset Motiv, das zugleich einen neuen Wirkungskanal von Klimapolitik eröffnet: Über die Umverteilung von Ressourcenrenten führt Klimapolitik zu einer Anpassung der Anlagetätigkeit, die im Zusammenspiel mit dem Asset Motiv den Monopolisten im Gegensatz zum Grünen Paradoxon zu einer Verlangsamung der Ressourcenextraktion veranlassen kann. Die Kapitalintensität „grüner" Substitute zu fossilen Ressourcen stellt einen bislang nicht betrachteten Zusammenhang zwischen Ressourcen- und Kapitalmarkt dar und führt damit einen weiteren Wirkungskanal von Klimapolitik in die Literatur ein. Auch ohne zusätzliche Angebotsmotive zeigt sich, dass mit Berücksichtigung dieses Zusammenhangs dem Vorliegen von Marktmacht erneut entscheidende Bedeutung für die Wirkung von Klimapolitik zukommen kann, indem eine Subventionierung des Substituts (nicht jedoch eine CO2-Steuer) in diesem Fall nicht nur die residuale Ressourcennachfrage reduziert, sondern auch die Preiselastizität der Nachfrage verändert.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:77
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Klimapolitik; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; Marktmacht; Fossile Energie; Energiereserven; Konsum; Erneuerbare Ressourcen; Erneuerbare Energie; Finanzmarkt; Staatsfonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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