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Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Green Paradox

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  • Frederick van der Ploeg

    (Department of Economics, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom
    Department of Economics, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands)

Abstract

The green paradox states that a gradually more ambitious climate policy such as a renewables subsidy or an anticipated carbon tax induces fossil fuel owners to extract more rapidly and accelerate global warming. However, if extraction becomes more costly as reserves are depleted, such policies also shorten the fossil fuel era, induce more fossil fuel to be left in the earth, and thus curb cumulative carbon emissions. These consequences are relevant, as global warming depends primarily on cumulative emissions. There is no green paradox for a specific carbon tax that rises at less than the market rate of interest. Because this is the case for the growth of the optimal carbon tax, the green paradox is a temporary second-best phenomenon. There is also a green paradox if there is a chance of a breakthrough in renewables technology occurring at some random future date. However, there will also be less investment in opening up fossil fuel deposits, and thus cumulative carbon emission will be curbed.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Green Paradox," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 281-300, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:5:y:2013:p:281-300
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    3. Veronika Yu. Zemzyulina & Natalya R. Kelchevskaya & Ilia M. Chernenko, 2023. "The Impact of Sustainable Development and Reliability on the Performance of Russian Enterprises in the Context of an Economic Fragmentation," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(4), pages 1056-1086.
    4. Florian Habermacher, 2015. "Carbon Leakage: A Medium- and Long-Term View," CESifo Working Paper Series 5216, CESifo.
    5. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77, May.
    6. Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2020. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy∗," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 188-199.
    8. Espinola-Arredondo, Ana & Muñoz-García, Félix & Duah, Isaac, 2019. "Anticipatory effects of taxation in the commons: When do taxes work, and when do they fail?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Merrill, Ryan K. & Orlando, Anthony W., 2020. "Oil at risk: Political violence and accelerated carbon extraction in the Middle East and North Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Kama, Alain Ayong Le & Moreaux, Michel, 2015. "Equilibrium transitions from non-renewable energy to renewable energy under capacity constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 89-112.
    11. Marie-Catherine Riekhof & Johannes Bröcker, 2017. "Does The Adverse Announcement Effect Of Climate Policy Matter? — A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-34, May.
    12. Mattauch, Linus & Creutzig, Felix & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Avoiding carbon lock-in: Policy options for advancing structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-63.
    13. Crago, Christine Lasco & Khanna, Madhu, 2014. "Carbon abatement in the fuel market with biofuels: Implications for second best policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 89-103.
    14. Hochman, Gal & Zilberman, David, 2021. "Optimal environmental taxation in response to an environmentally-unfriendly political challenger," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Karolina Ryszka & Cees Withagen, 2016. "Unilateral Climate Policies: Incentives and Effects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 471-504, February.
    16. van der Meijden, Gerard & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Withagen, Cees, 2015. "International capital markets, oil producers and the Green Paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 275-297.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global warming; green paradox; carbon tax; renewables subsidy; second best; technological breakthrough;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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