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Technology Treaties and Fossil-Fuels Extraction


  • Jon Strand


We consider some unintended effects of a technology treaty to increase the (stochastic) possibility of developing an energy alternative to fossil fuels which, when available, makes fossil fuels redundant. One implication of such a treaty is to increase the incentives for fossil-fuels producers to extract fossil fuels existing in given quantity more rapidly, under competition when the equilibrium price path for fossil fuels follows HotellingÕs rule. When the treaty may result in the new technology being immediately available, the expected resource extraction path is accelerated for an initial period, in simulations for 510 years, despite fossil fuels being phased out when the new technology appears. When there is a minimum (10-year) lag from treaty signing to technology implementation, expected extraction is speeded up for a longer period, 12-15 years. We discuss the implications of such treaties for global carbon emissions, which are not necessarily positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Strand, 2007. "Technology Treaties and Fossil-Fuels Extraction," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 129-142.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2007v28-04-a06

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Severin Borenstein & Stephen Holland, 2005. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Electricity Markets with Time-Invariant Retail Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 469-493, Autumn.
    2. Gregory W. Brown & Klaus Bjerre Toft, 2002. "How Firms Should Hedge," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1283-1324.
    3. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 844-844.
    4. Christopher Knittel & Catherine Wolfram & James Bushnell & Severin Borenstein, 2006. "Inefficiencies and Market Power in Financial Arbitrage: A Study of California?s Electricity Markets," Working Papers 630, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Severin Borenstein, 2007. "Wealth Transfers Among Large Customers from Implementing Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 131-150.
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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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