IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v65y2014icp78-85.html

The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources

Author

Listed:
  • Cairns, Robert D.

Abstract

The green paradox states that an increasing tax on emissions of carbon dioxide, consonant with the expected increase in their marginal damages, may induce oil producers to shift their production toward the present and thereby to exacerbate the problem of climatic change. The model is based on Hotelling models of resource use that do not take the natural and technical features of oil production into account. Natural features include the decline of production through time according to a decline curve. Technical features include the requirement to sink investment in productive capacity. A model of a profit-maximizing firm indicates that, if these features are taken into account, the prediction of the green paradox is unlikely.

Suggested Citation

  • Cairns, Robert D., 2014. "The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 78-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:78-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513010707
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2012. "Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 255-265.
    2. Cairns, Robert D. & Calfucura, Enrique, 2012. "OPEC: Market failure or power failure?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 570-580.
    3. Nystad, Arild N., 1985. "Petroleum taxes and optimal resource recovery," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 381-401, August.
    4. Thompson, Andrew C., 2001. "The Hotelling Principle, backwardation of futures prices and the values of developed petroleum reserves -- the production constraint hypothesis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 133-156, April.
    5. Raphael Amit, 1986. "Petroleum Reservoir Exploitation: Switching from Primary to Secondary Recovery," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 534-549, August.
    6. repec:aen:journl:1998v19-04-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    8. Mr. James L. Smith, 2012. "Modeling the Impact of Taxes on Petroleum Exploration and Development," IMF Working Papers 2012/278, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Davis, Graham A & Cairns, Robert D, 1999. "Valuing Petroleum Reserves Using Current Net Price," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 295-311, April.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1974. "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 12, pages 257-276, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Pierre Lasserre, 1985. "Capacity Choice by Mines," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 831-842, November.
    12. Hartwick, John M. & Kemp, Murray C. & Van Long, Ngo, 1986. "Set-up costs and theory of exhaustible resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 212-224, September.
    13. John Livernois, 2009. "On the Empirical Significance of the Hotelling Rule," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 22-41, Winter.
    14. Harry F. Campbell, 1980. "The Effect of Capital Intensity on the Optimal Rate of Extraction of a Mineral Deposit," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 349-356, May.
    15. Adelman, M A, 1990. "Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-10, February.
    16. Sinclair, Peter J N, 1992. "High Does Nothing and Rising Is Worse: Carbon Taxes Should Keep Declining to Cut Harmful Emissions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(1), pages 41-52, March.
    17. Philippe J. Crabbe, 1982. "The Effect of Capital Intensity on the Optimal Rate of Extraction of a Mineral Deposit: A Comment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 534-541, August.
    18. repec:aen:journl:2001v22-03-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Graham A. Davis, 2007. "Strike When the Force Is with You: Optimal Stopping with Application to Resource Equilibria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 461-472.
    20. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March.
    21. Graham A. Davis & Robert D. Cairns, 1998. "Simple Analytics of Valuing Producing Petroleum Reserves," The Energy Journal, , vol. 19(4), pages 133-142, October.
    22. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
    23. repec:aen:journl:2009v30-04-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Nystad, Arild N., 1987. "Rate sensitivity and the optimal choice of production capacity of petroleum reservoirs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 37-45, January.
    25. repec:aen:journl:1988v09-04-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "A Test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-25, February.
    27. Morris A. Adelman, 1993. "Modelling World Oil Supply," The Energy Journal, , vol. 14(1), pages 1-32, January.
    28. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1994. "The Optimal Time Path of a Carbon Tax," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 857-868, Supplemen.
    29. repec:aen:journl:1993v14-01-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Cairns, 2001. "Capacity Choice and the Theory of the Mine," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(1), pages 129-148, January.
    2. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    3. Anthony J. Venables, 2014. "Depletion and Development: Natural Resource Supply with Endogenous Field Opening," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(3), pages 313-336.
    4. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    5. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    6. repec:aen:journl:ej36-si1-cairns is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cotrina-Teatino, Marco A. & Marquina-Araujo, Jairo J., 2024. "Hotelling rule in non-renewable resources: A bibliometric and systematic literature review analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    9. Wang, Qiao & Balvers, Ronald, 2021. "Determinants and predictability of commodity producer returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2021. "(Bio-)Fuel mandating and the green paradox," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:13:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Romani, Ilenia Gaia & Comincioli, Nicola & Vergalli, Sergio, 2025. "Climate policy and cartelization risk for critical minerals: An application to the copper market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-01, Resources for the Future.
    14. Jean-Pierre Amigues & Michel Moreaux & Nguyen Manh-Hung, 2019. "The Fossil Energy Interlude: Optimal Building, Maintaining and Scraping a Dedicated Capital, and the Hotelling Rule," Working Papers 2019.07, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    15. Max Franks & Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann, 2017. "Why Finance Ministers Favor Carbon Taxes, Even If They Do Not Take Climate Change into Account," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(3), pages 445-472, November.
    16. Davis, Graham A. & Moore, David J., 1998. "Valuing mineral reserves when capacity constrains production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 121-125, July.
    17. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Gilbert Kollenbach, 2017. "Endogenous growth with a limited fossil fuel extraction capacity," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 233-272, February.
    19. Fischer, Carolyn & Salant, Stephen W., 2017. "Balancing the carbon budget for oil: The distributive effects of alternative policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 191-215.
    20. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2013. "Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 532-541.
    21. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest & Ashley Vissing, 2016. "Trophy Hunting vs. Manufacturing Energy: The Price-Responsiveness of Shale Gas," NBER Working Papers 22532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Watkins, G. C. & Streifel, Shane S., 1998. "World crude oil supply: Evidence from estimating supply functions by country," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 23-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:78-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.