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Depletion and Development: Natural resource supply with endogenous field opening

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  • Anthony J. Venables

Abstract

This paper develops a model in which supply of a non-renewable resource can adjust through two margins: the rate of depletion and the rate of field opening. Faster depletion of existing fields means that less of the resource can ultimately be extracted, and optimal depletion of open fields follows a (modified) Hotelling rule. Opening a new field involves sinking a capital cost, and the timing of field opening is chosen to maximize the present value of the field. Output dynamics depend on both depletion and field opening, and supply responses to price changes are studied. In contrast to Hotelling, the long run equilibrium rate of growth of prices is independent of the rate of interest, depending instead on characteristics of demand and geologically determined supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Depletion and Development: Natural resource supply with endogenous field opening," OxCarre Working Papers 062, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Hartley, Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ted Temzelides, Xinya Zhang, 2016. "Energy Sector Innovation and Growth: An Optimal Energy Crisis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    2. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    3. Weichenrieder, Alfons, 2017. "Should the Global Community Welcome or Mourn New Oil Discoveries?," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168089, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. François Castonguay & Pierre Lasserre, 2016. "Resource Agency Relationship with Privately Known Exploration and Extraction Costs," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-56, CIRANO.
    5. Joseph, Mawejje & Lawrence, Bategeka, 2013. "Accelerating Growth and Maintaining Intergenerational Equity Using Oil Resources in Uganda," Research Series 167526, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    6. Florian Habermacher, 2016. "Externalities in Risky Resource Markets - Optimal Taxes, Leakage and Divestment," CESifo Working Paper Series 5865, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 188-199.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural resource; depletion; Hotelling; fossil fuel; carbon tax;

    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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