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A test of the Hotelling rule using old-growth timber data

  • John Livernois
  • Henry Thille
  • Xianqiang Zhang

The paper tests Hotelling's prediction that scarcity rent for a non-renewable resource will rise at the rate of discount in a market equilibrium. We perform the test using data for old-growth timber, a resource that is effectively non-renewable. In contrast to previous studies, for this resource a measure of scarcity rent is directly observable in the form of stumpage price bids in timber auctions. We construct a model that allows for replanting and captures the institutional framework of the western U.S. timber market. The modified Hotelling rule that we derive is not rejected in several of our specifications.

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Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 163-186

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:163-186
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  18. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. " The Pricing of Oil and Gas: Some Further Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1009-18, July.
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  20. Gregory M. Ellis & Robert Halvorsen, 2002. "Estimation of Market Power in a Nonrenewable Resource Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 883-899, August.
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  22. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
  23. Young, Denise & Ryan, David L., 1996. "Empirical testing of a risk-adjusted Hotelling model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 265-289, October.
  24. Hartwick, John M, 1978. "Exploitation of Many Deposits of an Exhaustible Resource," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 201-17, January.
  25. Lyon, Kenneth S., 1981. "Mining of the forest and the time path of the price of timber," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 330-344, December.
  26. Gaudet, Gerard & Khadr, Ali M, 1991. "The Evolution of Natural Resource Prices under Stochastic Investment Opportunities: An Intertemporal Asset-Pricing Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 441-55, May.
  27. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "A Test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-25, February.
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